Table 3.

Comparison of performance for predicting the onset of social response (Model $0\to 1$) for country-disease pairs with a median of 20 or more news articles per year and those with fewer articles per year. Model performance was evaluated based on six metrics: accuracy, sensitivity, sensitivity looking only at weeks with articles in the preceding 3 weeks, sensitivity looking only at weeks with articles in the preceding week, specificity, and precision. Model sensitivity and precision were dramatically higher for the country-disease pairs with a median of 20 or more articles per year, than for the pairs with fewer articles per year

	Accuracy	Sensitivity			Specificity	Precision
		All weeks	Weeks with one or more articles in prior 3 weeks	Weeks with one or more articles in prior week
Next week ($Y_{ijt}^1$)
$\ge$20 articles	0.887	0.602	0.633	0.671	0.897	0.169
$<$20 articles	0.994	0.123	0.260	0.311	0.997	0.127
Next 2 weeks ($Y_{ijt}^2$)
$\ge$20 articles	0.858	0.536	0.569	0.619	0.877	0.206
$<$20 articles	0.991	0.107	0.265	0.337	0.997	0.182
Next 3 weeks ($Y_{ijt}^3$)
$\ge$20 articles	0.838	0.516	0.552	0.607	0.864	0.238
$<$20 articles	0.988	0.096	0.267	0.348	0.996	0.206