Table 2.

HIV/AIDS cases in Turkey from 1985 to 2016 as obtained from Ministry of Health Turkey compared with predicted values from the model

Year	HIV exact (predicted)	AIDS exact (predicted)	Total exact (predicted)
1985	0 (0)	3 (3)	3 (3)
1986	1 (2.31014)	1 (1)	2 (3.3101)
1987	32 (2.31014)	8 (1)	40 (3.3101)
1988	21 (4.066481)	11 (1.000001)	32 (5.0665)
1989	22 (7.66129)	11 (1.000004)	33 (8.6613)
1990	23 (13.80698)	13 (1.000002)	36 (14.8070)
1991	27 (23.19329)	24 (1.000088)	51 (24.1834)
1992	37 (36.96717)	28 (1.00035)	65 (37.9675)
1993	49 (57.09593)	34 (1.00128)	83 (38.0972)
1994	49 (87.09992)	36 (1.004533)	85 (88.1045)
1995	60 (132.403)	29 (1.015914)	89 (133.4189)
1996	93 (201.0708)	35 (1.055754)	128 (202.1266)
1997	96 (305.2835)	38 (1.195321)	134 (306.4789)
1998	83 (443.7849)	42 (1.600894)	125 (445.3858)
1999	89 (623.8392)	29 (2.67366)	118 (626.5128)
2000	115 (859.6329)	47 (5.400612)	162 (865.0335)
2001	139 (1170.991)	44 (12.22252)	183 (1183.2138)
2002	139 (1581.795)	41 (29.11121)	180 (1610.9060)
2003	136 (2116.389)	50 (70.31996)	186 (2186.7093)
2004	177 (2790.633)	59 (168.3727)	236 (2959.0055)
2005	253 (3592.832)	46 (391.6827)	299 (3984.5147)
2006	257 (4455.529)	43 (864.6296)	300 (5320.1588)
2007	352 (5180.24)	23 (1661.795)	375 (6842.0349)
2008	393 (5613.643)	55 (2586.58)	448 (8200.2232)
2009	441 (5852.257)	66 (3529.285)	507 (9381.5420)
2010	519 (5976.791)	71 (4461.45)	590 (10438.2413)
2011	642 (6031.311)	84 (5366.967)	726 (11398.2777)
2012	982 (6041.799)	95 (6236.744)	1077 (12278.5434)
2013	1311 (6024.255)	101 (7065.889)	1412 (13090.1448)
2014	1892 (5988.786)	131 (7852.095)	2023 (13840.8810)
2015	2072 (5966.372)	112 (8230.182)	2184 (14196.5535)
2016	3302 (6012.41)	80 (8520.12)	3382 (14532.5300)
Total	5227 (77196.55)	1483 (57072.39)	13646 (134268.9442)