Force of infection |
λvp |
- |
time-dependent |
v → p, per year |
Eq. (3) |
Latent period in pigs |
|
1.5 |
1–2 |
days |
Kodama et al. (1968); Ricklin et al. (2016a)
|
Infection period in pigs |
|
3 |
2–4 |
days |
Centers for Disease Control (2017); Kodama et al. (1968); Ricklin, Garcia-Nicolas, Brechbuhl, Python, Zumkehr, Nougairede, Charrel, Posthaus, Oevermann, Summerfield, 2016, Ricklin, Garcia-Nicolas, Brechbuhl, Python, Zumkehr, Posthaus, Oevermann, Summerfield, 2016; Williams et al. (2001)
|
Convalescent period in pigs |
|
2.5 |
1–4 |
days |
Ricklin et al. (2016a) |
Proportion of infected among imported pigs |
η |
1.0% |
0.43%–1.45% |
pigs, Nil |
Eq. (8) |
Effective contact rate |
βp |
estimate |
0.0–0.4 |
pigs, per days |
Eq. (10) |
Lifespan of pigs |
|
234.0 |
234.0 |
days |
Eq. (7) |
Population size of pigs |
Np |
- |
time-dependent |
see Fig. 4
|
Hong Kong (2017); Legislative Council of Hong Kong, Legislative Council of Hong Kong; Scientific Committee on Vector-borne Diseases (2017); The Government of Hong Kong, Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD), The Government of Hong Kong, Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD)
|
Spill-over ratio |
ρ |
- |
time-dependent |
p → h, Nil |
Eq. (5) |
Initial proportion of susceptible |
Sp0
|
estimate |
45–75% |
Nil |
Center for Health Protection (2017); Konno (1969); Riley et al. (2007)
|
Initial proportion of exposed |
Ep0
|
0.1% |
– |
Nil |
assumed |
Initial proportion of infectious |
Ip0
|
0.1% |
– |
Nil |
assumed |
Initial proportion of convalescent |
Cp0
|
0.1% |
– |
Nil |
assumed |
Initial proportion of recovered |
Rp0
|
estimate |
25–55% |
Nil |
Center for Health Protection (2017); Konno (1969); Riley et al. (2007)
|