Table 1.

Model parameters

Parameter	Description	Mean value	95% CI	Procedure
$N$	Number of individuals	8664693		Fixeda
$1/\gamma$	Average duration of flu infectious period	2.94 days	(1.79, 4.34)	Sampledb
$1/\delta$	Average duration of ARI infectious period	8.47 days	(6.82, 10.04)	Sampledc
$r$	Intrinsic growth rate of the fall wave	$0.2{\mathrm{days}}^{-1}$		Estimatedd
$\beta$	Transmission rate of flu	$0.54{\mathrm{days}}^{-1}$	(0.43, 0.76)	Computed as $r+\gamma$
$\alpha$	Transmission rate of ARI	$0.96{\mathrm{days}}^{-1}$	(0.79, 1.09)	Fitted
$\rho$	Transmission rate of flu for coinfected individuals	$1.6{\mathrm{days}}^{-1}$	(1.44, 2.25)	Fitted
$\epsilon$	Mortality rate	$0.0069{\mathrm{days}}^{-1}$	(0.0041, 0.0142)	Fitted
$t_0$	Initial time of flu	$-1.86\mathrm{weeks}$	$(-2.35,-1.22)$	Fitted
$t_0^{\mathrm{ari}}$	Initial time of ARI	16.56 weeks	(15.52, 17.65)	Fitted
$R_0$	Reproduction number of the fall wave	1.58	(1.36, 1.86)	Computed as $\beta /\gamma$

^aSee Smallman-Raynor et al. (2002).

^bSampled from a gamma distribution with shape parameter 20 and scale parameter 0.15.

^cSampled from a gamma distribution with shape parameter 111.8421 and scale parameter 0.076.

^dEstimated by fitting the cumulative number of cases with an exponential model.