Fig. 2.

Sensitivity of the probability of the end of the Ebola epidemic to the relative reduction in unprotected sexual contact.

Vertical axis measures the probability of observing additional cases on or after the specified week, while the horizontal axis measures the weeks since the last case was buried or tested negative twice to Ebola virus. Panels A, C and E examine the sensitivity of the probability of the end of the Ebola epidemic to the relative reduction in unprotected sexual contact, assuming that sexual transmission accounts for 0.12% of all secondary transmissions. Of the two vertical lines, the solid line represents the week in which the end of the epidemic was declared, following a 42-day waiting period as specified by the World Health Organization. The dashed vertical line represents the week in which a recrudescent case was recognized after the first erroneous declaration. The horizontal dashed line measures the probability at 5% below which one may regard that the epidemic is over. Panels B, D and F measure the sensitivity of the probability to the relative reduction in unprotected sexual contact, assuming that sexual transmission accounts for 10% of all secondary transmissions.