Fig. 3.

Sensitivity of the probability of the end of Ebola epidemic to case ascertainment.

Panels A, C and E show the estimated actual number of cases in the respective countries, assuming that the proportion diagnosed represents 10%, 50% and 90% of the total infected individuals. To adhere to the real time nature of the analysis, and to appropriately include recrudescent events in the epidemic data, the original data were derived from probable and confirmed cases in the Situation Report of the World Health Organization (WHO). Of the two vertical lines, the solid line represents the week in which the end of the epidemic was declared, following a 42-day waiting period as specified by the WHO. The dashed vertical line represents the week in which a recrudescent case was recognized after the first erroneous declaration. Panels B, D and F measure the sensitivity of the probability to the proportion diagnosed. The vertical axis measures the probability of observing additional cases on or after the specified week, while the horizontal axis measures the weeks since the last case was buried or tested negative twice to Ebola virus. The horizontal dashed line measures the probability at 5% below which one may regard that the epidemic is over.