Fig. 2.

Posterior probability of influenza in comparison with two different coronavirus infections. (A and B) The posterior probability of influenza given illness onset at t days since immigration (as compared to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)), calculated by using Eq. (11). We assumed that the travelers stay in country A for 5 days with two different rates of exponential growth (where exponential 1 corresponds to exponentially distributed generation time, while exponential 2 corresponds a constant generation time) or the uniformly distributed risk over time. The prior probability of influenza was assumed as 0.50. R₀ of MERS was assumed to be 0.63. (C and D) The average probability of influenza given illness onset from 0 to t days since immigration (as compared to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)), calculated by using Eq. (13). Only the results that assumed exponential growth with exponentially distributed generation time are shown, but other assumption yielded quantitatively similar estimates. Other parameters are identical to those adopted in panels A and B.