Fig. 3.

Sensitivity of the probability of influenza to three different model variables during comparison with the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). (A, B and C) Sensitivity of the posterior probability of influenza to the duration of travel, the prior probability of influenza and R₀ of MERS, respectively (Eq. (11)). (D, E and F) Sensitivity of the average probability of influenza to the duration of travel, the prior probability of influenza and R₀ of MERS, respectively (Eq. (13)). A & D vary the duration of travel, B & E vary the prior probability of influenza, and C & F vary the R₀ of MERS. Unless varied in the corresponding univariate analysis, the duration of travel was 5 days, the prior probability of influenza was assumed as 0.50, and R₀ of MERS was assumed to be 0.63. Only the results that assumed exponential growth with exponentially distributed generation time are shown, but other assumption yielded quantitatively similar estimates.