Table B.2.
OLS: Relationship Between Monthly BCI Crime Lab Tests and Monthly Overdose Death Rate (per 100,000 adults), 2010–2017
| All Counties (1) |
Small Counties (2) |
Medium Counties (3) |
Large Counties (4) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fentanyl | 0.0510*** (0.0145) |
0.0514 (0.0448) |
0.0773** (0.0340) |
0.0440** (0.0182) |
| Carfentanil | 0.0904*** (0.0283) |
−0.0220 (0.1350) |
−0.0258 (0.1276) |
0.1117*** (0.0287) |
| Other Fentanyl Analogs | 0.1319*** (0.0319) |
0.3823** (0.1650) |
0.1025*** (0.0314) |
0.1450*** (0.0376) |
| Heroin | −0.0038 (0.0044) |
−0.0285* (0.0169) |
−0.0060 (0.0106) |
0.0011 (0.0028) |
| Benzodiazepines | 0.0046 (0.0100) |
−0.0035 (0.0321) |
0.0222 (0.0259) |
−0.0009 (0.0082) |
| MDMA | −0.0045 (0.0145) |
−0.1467 (0.1154) |
−0.0140 (0.0239) |
0.0016 (0.0152) |
| Other Synthetic Stimulants (Not Meth/Amph) | 0.0039 (0.0053) |
0.0182 (0.0425) |
0.0216 (0.0193) |
−0.0005 (0.0034) |
| Unemployment Rate (%*100) | −0.0755 (0.0558) |
−0.0256 (0.0842) |
−0.1972** (0.0888) |
−0.0901 (0.0676) |
| Poverty Rate (%*100) | −0.0050 (0.0299) |
−0.1010** (0.0474) |
0.1050*** (0.0331) |
0.0012 (0.0380) |
| Median Income ($1000s) | −0.0272 (0.0223) |
−0.0269 (0.0338) |
−0.0339 (0.0417) |
−0.0014 (0.0325) |
| MED Opioids Per Capita | 0.0562 (0.2738) |
−0.5098 (0.4164) |
0.7558*** (0.2003) |
−0.2588 (0.3169) |
| MED Suboxone Per Capita | −0.4955 (0.7270) |
0.8289 (1.0070) |
−1.6142** (0.6081) |
−0.8193 (2.1357) |
| Other Drug Tests | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| County and Month FE | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| County-Month Linear Trends | yes | yes | yes | yes |
| R-Squared | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.58 |
| Observations | 8352 | 3744 | 2016 | 2592 |
| Counties | 87 | 39 | 22 | 26 |
Notes: Robust standard errors, clustered at the county level, are reported in parentheses. Other drug tests control for the number of monthly positive tests of cocaine, synthetic cannibinoids, methamphetamine/amphetamines, psychedelics, and other designer drugs (each as a separate variable). See Appendix A for detailed definitions of drug categories. Each observation is at the county-month level from 2010 through 2017. The death rate is calculated as the number of deaths in a county-month divided by the county population aged 18 and over from the US Census July 1st estimates for the corresponding year multiplied by 100,000. Small Counties: population 50,000 or less. Medium Counties: population between 50,000 and 100,000. Large Counties: population more than 100,000.
p < 0.1.
p < 0.05.
p < 0.01.