Table.
Parameter values for the model
| Value | Reference | |
|---|---|---|
| Sampled | ||
| Delay from onset to isolation (short) | 3·43 days (2·02–5·23) | Donnelly et al20 |
| Delay from onset to isolation (long) | 8·09 days (5·52–10·93) | Li et al21 |
| Incubation period | 5·8 days (2·6) | Backer et al22 |
| Serial interval | Incubation period (2) | Assumed |
| Fixed | ||
| Initial cases | 5, 20, and 40 | Public Health England11 and Klinkenberg and colleagues14 |
| Percentage of contacts traced | 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100% | Tested |
| Reproduction number (R0; low, central, high estimate) | 1·5, 2·5, 3·5 | Kucharski et al17 and Imai et al18 |
| Overdispersion in R0 (SARS-like) | 0·16 | Lloyd-Smith et al19 |
| R0 after isolation | 0 | Assumed |
| Cases isolated once identified | 100% | Assumed |
| Isolation effectiveness | 100% | Assumed |
| Subclinical infection percentage | 0%, 10% | Tested |
Data are median (IQR) or mean (SD), n, or %. Sampled values are probabilistically sampled during the simulation, and fixed values remain constant during the simulation. The mean of the short and long delays are 3·83 and 9·1, respectively. SARS=severe acute respiratory syndrome.