Fig 4. Beta-MDN output emulating the infection dynamics with time for a stochastic SIR model.

(A–D) A comparison of simulation results with sampled MDN output for fixed γ = 0.2 and N = 1, 000 and different β values that give the following R₀ values: (A) R₀ = 0.5, (B) R₀ = 1.0, (C) R₀ = 2.0, and (D) R₀ = 5.0. (E–F) Two-sample K–S statistic where sample of 100 points are drawn from a negative binomial and the MDN over a range of time t values. 100 replicates are used to estimate a mean K–S statistic and a 95% range. Dashed line represent significance at α = 0.05, with values less indicating the two samples do not differ significantly. Tests are for (E) number of susceptible people and (F) number of infected people.