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. 2015 Dec 17;15:1–9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2015.12.001

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© 2015 The Authors

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 4 — Predicted time series of incidence and proportion of secondary cases for the whole Middle East and the five regions with the most cases. For each region the average number of cases is displayed with the grey-scale colour-map, while values for the proportion of secondary cases are colour-coded (white, yellow orange and red) according to the legend. Average number of cumulative cases predicted by the model is indicated on the top of each colormap. Dashed lines indicate the time periods for increased activity assumed by the model.