Table 2.
Correlates of mortality and mid-epidemic estimates of case-fatality rates
| First author | Publication date | Location | Number of patients | Analysis method | Estimated mortality rate | Significant correlates | Non-significant factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee45 | April 7, 2003 | Hong Kong | 138 | Logistic regression | 3·6% died by day 21 | Age (p=0·007) Sex (p=0·01) | ·· |
| WHO77 | April 11, 2003 | Worldwide | 2781 | Deaths divided by SARS cases | 4% | Age: higher death rate in older patients in Canada | ·· |
| Booth46 | May 6, 2003 | Canada | 144 | Proportional hazards multivariate analysis | 6·5% at 21 days | Diabetes: RR 3·1 (95% CI 1·4–7·2) Other comorbid disease:* RR 2·5 (95% CI 1·1–5·8) | Age ≥60 years RR 1·4 (95% CI 0·95–2·1) |
| Donnelly47 | May 7, 2003 | Hong Kong | 1425 | Non-parametric and parametric estimation allowing for censoring | 14·9% (non-parametric) 18·2% (parametric) | Age (non-parametric): <60 years 6·8%, ≥60 years 55·0% Age (parametric): <60 years 13·2%, ≥60 years 43·3% | ·· |
| WHO48 | May 7, 2003 | Worldwide | ·· | “More reliable methods” than used previously77 | 14–15% overall: 11–17% Hong Kong, 13–15% Singapore, 15–19% Canada, 5–13% China | Age: <25 years <1%, 25–44 years 6%, 45–64 years 15%, ≥65 years >50% | ·· |
| Fowler80 | July 16, 2003 | Toronto | 38 adults admitted to ICU | Fisher's exact test and logistic regression | 34% at 28 days | Age, diabetes | Sex, occupation (healthcare worker vs non-healthcare worker), ischaemic cardiac disease, chronic pulmonary disease. |
| Lew67 | July 16, 2003 | Singapore | 199 | Logistic regression of early or intermediate recovery vs late recovery or death | 10·1% at 28 days | Age: OR for 1 yr increase 1·04 (95% CI 1·01–1·09); APACHE II score: OR for 1 unit increase 1·2 (95% CI 1·05–1·4) | Sex, asthma, diabetes, hypertension, chronic renal failure. |
| Chan65 | Aug, 2003 | Hong Kong | 115 | Proportional hazards models | 15·7% by May 31, 2003 (outcome known in 100 patients), 10% at 21 days | Age >60 years: HR 3·5 (95% CI 2·8–29·1); diabetes or cardiac disease: HR 9·1 (95% CI 2·8–29·1); other comorbid conditions:† HR 5·2 (95% CI 1·4–19·2) | ·· |
| Choi66 | Nov 4, 2003 | Hong Kong | 267 | Proportional hazards models | 12% at 3 months | Age >60 years: HR 5·1 (95% CI 2·3–11·3) | ·· |
| Shen81 | Feb, 2004 | Beijing, China | 77 | Fisher's exact test (two-tailed) | ·· | Onward transmission: 75% super-spreaders,‡ 16% others. | ·· |
*
Defined as chronic obstructive disease, cancer, and cardiac disease.
†
Defined as hypertension, asthma, and chronic renal failure.
‡
Shen and colleagues81 arbitrarily defined super-spreaders to be those attributed as the source of SARS in at least eight other persons. HR=hazard ratio; ICU=intensive care unit; OR=odds ratio; RR=relative risk; ··=not reported.