Table 2.
Climate migration for Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Mexico in 205034
| Ethiopia | Bangladesh | Mexico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population in 2050 compared with 2020 | Increases to 159 million from 103 million (in SSP2) or 184 million from 105 million (in SSP4)a | Increases to 196 million from 166 million (in SSP2) or 177 million from 164 million (in SSP4)a | Increases to 149 million from 126 million (in SSP2) or 136 million from 125 million (in SSP4)a |
| Number of climate migrants by 2050 | Highest in more climate-friendly scenario, with average projection of 1.5 millionb | Highest in pessimistic reference scenario, with average projection of 13.3 million | Highest in pessimistic reference scenario, with average projection of 1.7 million |
| Internal climate-related migration | Southern highlands Ahmar Mountains in the east | Main stem of the Ganges River basin in the west | Central plateau near Mexico City and east of Puebla Smaller hotspots farther south in Oaxaca State and on the northern coast of Baja California south of Tijuana |
| Climate out-migration hotspots | Northern highlands Addis Ababa | Dhaka and river delta south of the city Eastern coast near Chittagong Northeast | Along Gulf of Mexico, especially Veracruz and Tabasco States, in southern state of Chiapas and on Pacific coast, especially Guerrero State Scattered in the arid north |
| Climate migration in/out of rural livelihood zones | In-migration: pastoral and rangelands, semi-natural and wild areas; out-migration: rainfed croplands | In-migration: rainfed croplands; out-migration: rice-growing areas | In-migration: pastoral and rangelands; out-migration: rainfed croplands |
SSP2 means moderate development; SSP4, unequal development.
a
aThe moderate development SSP2 scenario for Bangladesh and Mexico yield larger populations than the unequal development SSP4 scenario because both are middle-income countries. Only low-income countries show marked increases in population under SPP4.
b
bThe higher number of climate migrants under the more climate-friendly scenario in Ethiopia is in part driven by the regional climate models, which project lower water availability by 2050 in general compared with the other two scenarios (pessimistic reference and more inclusive development scenarios), which are coupled with higher emissions.