TABLE 2.

Mean probability of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome obtained when assuming that the probability of transmission is constant, as well as deviance information criterion statistics for unstratified and stratified models 1) assuming that transmission probability is constant and 2) allowing for day-to-day variation in transmission probability, Hong Kong, China, 2003

Model	No. of index cases	Probability of transmission when transmission is assumed to be constant		Deviance information criterion statistic for Markov chain Monte Carlo model
		Mean	95% credible interval	Constant transmission	Daily variation
Unstratified	765	0.013	0.011, 0.016	1,712.7	1,711.6*
					1,709.8†
Stratified by:
Date of symptom onset
Before March 26	318	0.015	0.012, 0.019	1,712.7	1,710.3
On or after March 26	447	0.012	0.009, 0.015
Index case lactate dehydrogenase level
Above predicted	279	0.024	0.019, 0.030	1,679.9	1,687.4
Below predicted	375	0.007	0.005, 0.010
Not measured	111	0.010	0.005, 0.016
Age of index case
≥60 years	129	0.027	0.019, 0.035	1,697.5	1,694.9
<60 years	636	0.011	0.009, 0.013

^*Estimated for 13 days of index case illness.

^†Estimated for 10 days of index case illness.