Table 12.
Aviation radiative forcings for 2000, 2005, 2020 and 2050 in units of mW m−2. The 2050 scenarios utilize SRES (IPCC, 2000) GDP scenario assumptions of A1 and B2 and two levels of NOx technology as described by IPCC (1999) and Lee et al. (2009), t1 and t2 (note that totals in all cases exclude cirrus). Key: Sa05 (Sausen et al., 2005); St05 (Stordal et al., 2005); L09 (Lee et al., 2009).
| Year/study | RF (mW m−2) |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 | O3 | CH4 | H2O | Contrails | SO4 | Soot | Cirrus (low, mean high) | Total (ex cirrus) | |
| 2000/Sa05/St05 | 25.3 | 21.9 | −10.4 | 2.0 | 10.0 | −3.5 | 2.5 | 10, 30, 80 | 47.8 |
| 2005/L09 | 28.0 | 26.3 | −12.5 | 2.8 | 11.8 | −4.8 | 3.5 | 11, 33, 87 | 55.0 |
| 2020/L09 | 40.8 | 40.6 | −19.2 | 4.0 | 20.2 | −7.0 | 5.0 | 16, 47, 125 | 84.4 |
| 2050 A1t1/L09 | 76.3 | 109.8 | −52.0 | 9.7 | 55.4 | −16.9 | 12.1 | 38, 114, 305 | 194.4 |
| 2050 A1t2/L09 | 77.7 | 85.3 | −40.4 | 10.0 | 55.4 | −17.5 | 12.5 | 39, 118, 315 | 183.0 |
| 2050 B2t1/L09 | 73.3 | 76.5 | −36.3 | 6.7 | 37.2 | −11.8 | 8.4 | 27, 80, 212 | 154.2 |
| 2050 B2t2/L09 | 74.5 | 59.4 | −28.2 | 7.0 | 37.2 | −12.2 | 8.7 | 27, 82, 220 | 146.5 |