Table 3.
Parameters estimates for key components of a quantitative risk analysis integrating public health, conservation, and nutrition considerations for the Lao bushmeat trade.
| Parameter | Description | Data source | Distribution type | Distribution parameters [95% confidence interval]a |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter 1 | Proportion of traded animals sold alive | Vendor survey | Beta | alpha = 2.66 [1.85–4.57] beta = 7.88 [5.33–14.30] |
| Parameter 2 | Yearly frequency of consumption | Consumer survey | Negative binomial | size = 0.47 [0.39–0.59] mu = 25.6 [20.6–31.4] |
| Parameter 3 | Proportion consumers only purchasing dead animals (vs. a combination of dead and live animals) | Consumer survey | Binomial | p = 60.8 [54.0–68.1] |
| Parameter 4 | Number of consumers per stall in 20 min period | Direct observations | Negative binomial | mu = 2.04 [1.67–2.43] size = 1.33 [0.91–2.17] |
| Parameter 5 | Number of animals per purchase for small-sized rodents | Direct observations | Poisson | lambda = 2.28 [1.97–2.59] |
| Parameter 6 | Amount of meat per purchase for all species (in kg) | Direct observations | Log Normal | mean = 0.75 [0.63–0.90] sd = 4.69 [4.14–5.30] |
| Parameter 7 | Capture-to-market time for live animals (in days) | Vendor survey | Gamma | shape = 5.00 [4.78–5.23] rate = 3.06 [2.91–3.21] |
| Parameter 8 | Time-on-market for live animals (in days) | Vendor survey | Weibull | shape = 1.77 [1.76–1.79] scale = 1.68 [1.68–1.70] |
| Parameter 9 | Proportion of vendors keeping live animals at home if unsold the first day | Vendor survey | Binomial | p = 91% [75.8–97.8] |
| Parameter 10 | Fate of live animals if unsold on first day: fed and returned to market (p1), killed and consumed (p2), or processed and sold at reduced price (p3) | Vendor survey | Multinomial | p1 = 54.3% [40–72.6] p2 = 22.9% [8.6–41.1] p3 = 22.9% [8.6–41.1] |
| Parameter 11 | Hunting-to-market time for dead animals (in days) | Vendor survey | Gamma | shape = 15.1 [14.4–15.8] rate = 13.8 [13.3–14.5] |
| Parameter 12 | Time-on-market for dead animals (in days) | Vendor survey | Gamma | shape = 3.03 [2.92–3.18] rate = 4.39 [4.19–4.60] |
| Parameter 13 | Fate of unsold dead animals: eaten by vendor (p1), smoked (p2), sold discounted (p3) | Vendor survey | Multinomial | p1 = 54.3% [40.0–72.5] p2 = 31.4% [17.1–49.7] p3 = 14.3% [0.0–32.5] |
| Parameter 14 | Proportion of consumers reporting eating bushmeat raw | Consumer survey | Binomial | p = 13.1% [8.7–19.3] |
| Parameter 15 | Meat cooking preferences: raw (p1), medium (p2), well done (p3). | Consumer survey | Multinomial | p1 = 4.1% [1.2–8.2] p2 = 3.6% [0.6–7.6] p3 = 92.3% [89.3–96.4] |
| Parameter 16 to 22 | Count of contacts per animal of different species groups in 20 min periods | Direct observations | Negative binomial | See Supplementary document 2, Table S2 |
| Parameter 23 | Proportion of wildlife vendor interrupting wildlife sales after being controlled by enforcement authorities | Vendor survey | Binomial | p = 57.1% [39.5–73.2] |
| Parameter 24 | Duration of trade activity interruption after control by enforcement authorities (in days) | Vendor survey | Weibull | shape = 0.73 [0.50–0.97] scale = 9.36 [3.40–15.3] |
a
Exact 95% confidence were estimated for binomial and multinomial distributions; bootstrap 95% confidence intervals were used for all other distributions.