Table 1.

Decomposing reported MERS-CoV cases

Time	year	Quarter	MERS-CoV Cases	Moving average (4)	Centred moving average (4)	Seasonality with irregularity(St, It)	Seasonality, (St)	Deseasonalised	Trend	Predicted/Forecast
1	2015	Q1	151				1.05	144	164.74	173
2		Q2	152				1.11	137	153.91	170
3		Q3	228				0.69	330	143.07	99
4		Q4	33	141	131	0.25	0.59	56	132.23	78
5	2016	Q1	73	122	111	0.66	1.05	70	121.39	127
6		Q2	71	101	78	0.92	1.11	64	110.55	122
7		Q3	38	54	57	0.67	0.69	55	99.72	69
8		Q4	58	60	64	0.91	0.59	99	88.88	52
9	2017	Q1	102	67	71	1.44	1.05	97	78.04	82
10		Q2	99	74	76	1.30	1.11	89	67.20	74
11		Q3	54	78	76	0.71	0.69	78	56.36	39
12		Q4	37	73	62	0.60	0.59	63	45.53	27
13	2018	Q1	14	51			1.05	13	34.69	36
14		Q2*					1.11		23.85	26.41
15		Q3*					0.69		13.01	8.99
16		Q4*					0.59		2.17	1.28

Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 are the Quarters of the year and * = implies forecast.