Table 4.
The economic impacts of changes in NHS provision levels on the UK economy.
| Experiment |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 |
|||||||
| A rise in NHS budget by 11.31%; mobile factors | A rise in NHS budget by 11.31%; health care-specific factors | 10% immigration of health-specific skilled workers; the NHS budget rises by 11.31% so as to maintain their wages |
|||||||
| – | – | 0%a | 50%a | 100%a | |||||
| Change in | |||||||||
| Production (%) | 1 Primary | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.05 | 0.05 | 0.14 | |||
| 2 Pharmaceuticals | 5.93 | 2.44 | 5.53 | 5.79 | 6.05 | ||||
| 3 Medical Instruments | 2.34 | 1.03 | 2.35 | 2.48 | 2.61 | ||||
| 4 Other manufacturing | −0.26 | −0.12 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.18 | ||||
| 5 Energy | −0.21 | −0.13 | 0.11 | 0.05 | −0.01 | ||||
| 6 Construction | 0.06 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.12 | ||||
| 7 Distribution and transport | −0.15 | −0.09 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.13 | ||||
| 8 Finance | −0.13 | −0.02 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.17 | ||||
| 9 Public administration and defence | −0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.24 | ||||
| 10 Health care | NHS | 11.30 | 5.61 | 10.31 | 10.39 | 10.47 | |||
| PHC | −0.37 | −5.25 | −0.88 | −1.07 | −1.26 | ||||
| 11 Other services | −0.18 | −0.12 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.04 | ||||
| Health status and labour market impacts (%) | Health care status | Skill | Skilled labour | 9.27 | 3.72 | 8.37 | 8.40 | 8.43 | |
| Unsk | Unskilled labour | 10.81 | 5.15 | 9.84 | 9.91 | 9.97 | |||
| Waiting list | Skill | Skilled labour | −16.25 | −7.05 | −14.85 | −14.90 | −14.94 | ||
| Unsk | Unskilled labour | −18.55 | −9.56 | −17.12 | −17.21 | −17.31 | |||
| Effective labour supply | Skill | Skilled labour | 0.48 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.45 | ||
| Unsk | Unskilled labour | 0.84 | 0.43 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.79 | |||
| Factor returns (%) | Mobile factors of production | Skill | Skilled labour | 0.02 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.32 | |
| Unsk | Unskilled labour | −0.37 | 0.20 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.30 | |||
| Cap | Capital | 0.15 | −0.01 | 0.20 | 0.08 | −0.03 | |||
| Health care-specific factors of production | Skill | Skilled labour | – | 11.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Cap | Capital | – | 12.02 | 7.97 | 7.97 | 7.98 | |||
| Government (%) | Tax revenues | 0.16 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.21 | |||
| Transfers to households | −4.92 | −4.55 | −4.11 | −4.45 | −4.80 | ||||
| Private household welfare (EVh) in million pounds (%) | Hse1 | Pensioners | −2770 (−1.56) | −2402 (−1.36) | −1993 (−1.12) | −2150 (−1.21) | −2307 (−1.30) | ||
| Hse2 | Non-working, children | −574 (−4.06) | −523 (−3.71) | −472 (−3.34) | −500 (−3.54) | −528 (−3.74) | |||
| Hse3 | Non-working, no children | −567 (−1.62) | −521 (−1.49) | −417 (−1.19) | −447 (−1.28) | −477 (−1.36) | |||
| Hse4 | Working, children | −540 (−0.23) | −130 (−0.06) | 297 (0.13) | −71 (−0.03) | −441 (−0.19) | |||
| Hse5 | Working, no children | 1115 (0.36) | 1730 (0.56) | 2136 (0.68) | 1594 (0.51) | 1051 (0.34) | |||
| Public welfare from changes in NHS provisioning (million pounds) | Hse1 | Pensioners | 1527 | 758 | 1394 | 1404 | 1414 | ||
| Hse2 | Non-working, children | 529 | 263 | 483 | 487 | 490 | |||
| Hse3 | Non-working, no children | 462 | 229 | 422 | 425 | 428 | |||
| Hse4 | Working, children | 1861 | 924 | 1699 | 1712 | 1724 | |||
| Hse5 | Working, no children | 1703 | 845 | 1555 | 1566 | 1578 | |||
| Overall household welfareb (EVT) in million pounds (%) | Hse1 | Pensioners | −1244 (−0.65) | −1644 (−0.86) | −600 (−0.31) | −746 (−0.39) | −893 (−0.47) | ||
| Hse2 | Non-working, children | −44 (−0.24) | −261 (−1.39) | 11 (0.06) | −13 (−0.07) | −38 (−0.20) | |||
| Hse3 | Non-working, no children | −105 (−0.27) | −292 (−0.75) | 5 (0.01) | −22 (−0.06) | −48 (−0.12) | |||
| Hse4 | Working, children | 1321 (0.54) | 793 (0.32) | 1997 (0.81) | 1640 (0.66) | 1284 (0.52) | |||
| Hse5 | Working, no children | 2819 (0.86) | 2575 (0.79) | 3691 (1.13) | 3160 (0.97) | 2629 (0.80) | |||
| Total private welfare in million pounds (%) | −3336 (−0.43) | −1847 (−0.24) | −449 (−0.06) | −1575 (−0.21) | −2701 (−0.35) | ||||
| Total pubic welfare in million pounds (%) | 6083 (11.30) | 3019 (5.61) | 5553 (10.31) | 5594 (10.39) | 5635 (10.47) | ||||
| Total welfare for the UK (EVUK) in million pounds (%) | 2748 (0.33) | 1172 (0.14) | 5104 (0.62) | 4019 (0.49) | 2934 (0.36) | ||||
a
Remittance scenario's (% of foreign worker income).
b
Note: percent change also provides a per-capita measure of welfare changes by household type.