Table 3.
Estimation results of SARIMA Intervention and Trend models
| Variables | SARIMA Intervention |
Trend model |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficients | SD | t | Coefficients | SD | t | |
| AR(1) | −0.44** | 0.13 | −3.44 | |||
| AR(2) | −0.47** | 0.13 | −3.65 | |||
| SAR(1) | −0.87** | 0.12 | −7.06 | |||
| SAR(2) | −0.46** | 0.14 | −3.34 | |||
| T | 4279.27* | 2073.47 | 2.06 | |||
| t2 | 132.44** | 29.30 | 4.52 | |||
| Constant | 743,032.62 | 28,190.81 | 26.36 | |||
| IMF | 83,484.05* | 39,407.63 | 2.12 | 84,242.84** | 26,076.07 | 3.23 |
| Terrorism | −98,226.66* | 49,112.48 | −2.00 | −65,168.65** | 18,116.21 | −3.60 |
| World Cup | 134,242.33* | 50,890.75 | 2.64 | 119,155.64** | 18,637.18 | 6.39 |
| SARS | −292,077.61** | 49,054.47 | −5.95 | −295,328.68* | 141,615.70 | −2.09 |
SARIMA Intervention (2,1,0)(2,1,0)4 : AIC=1497, SBC=1514; SARIMA Intervention (1,1,0)(2,1,0)4 : AIC=1507, SBC=1522; SARIMA Intervention (2,1,0)(1,1,0)4: AIC=1503, SBC=1520; F=106.19(df=6), p<0.001, R2=0.92.
*
p<0.05.
**
p<0.01.