Table 1.
Structural Break Estimation Results and its Rationale.
This table presents for each country analyzed the results of the Bai and Perron, 1998, Bai and Perron, 2003a, Bai and Perron, 2003b structural break method to test for infrequent structural breaks in international tourism arrivals. For the identified structural break dates, we seek to identify their rational, i.e. the existence of a crisis or disaster in the tourism sector of the country. In this manner, we are only interested in the structural breaks that led to a decrease in the number of international tourists, seeking to identify the tourism crises or disasters that are at its origin. * Significant at the 0.05 level. ** Bai and Perron (2003b) critical values.
| Country | Break Test | F-statistic | Critical Values | Break Dates | Rational |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian Countries | |||||
| China | 0 vs 1 * | 14.58 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| Hong Kong | 0 vs 1 * | 40.06 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| 1 vs 2 * | 20.82 | 10.13 ** | 2007 | Financial Crisis | |
| Indonesia | 0 vs 1 * | 11.90 | 8.58 ** | 2005 | Bali Bombings and Tsunami |
| Japan | 0 vs 1 * | 28.88 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| 1 vs 2 * | 15.39 | 10.13 ** | 2011 | Earthquake | |
| Maldives | 0 vs 1 * | 11.96 | 8.58 ** | 2005 | Tsunami |
| Singapore | 0 vs 1 * | 22.49 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| Sri Lanka | 0 vs 1 * | 16.42 | 8.58 ** | 2005 | Tsunami |
| 1 vs 2 * | 14.16 | 10.13 ** | 2008 | Financial Crisis | |
| Taiwan | 0 vs 1 * | 76.68 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| Thailand | 0 vs 1 * | 53.99 | 8.58 ** | 2005 | Tsunami |
| Vietnam | 0 vs 1 * | 56.70 | 8.58 ** | 2003 | SARS + Avian Flu |
| MENA Countries | |||||
| Egypt | 0 vs 1 * | 73.76 | 8.58 ** | 2001 | 9/11 attacks |
| 1 vs 2 * | 10.84 | 10.13 ** | 2011 | Arab Spring | |
| Israel | 0 vs 1 * | 22.99 | 8.58 ** | 2001 | 9/11 attacks |
| 1 vs 2 * | 14.29 | 10.13 ** | 2008 | Financial Crisis | |
| Syria | 0 vs 1 * | 32.56 | 8.58 ** | 2011 | Arab Spring |
| Tunisia | 0 vs 1 * | 22.95 | 8.58 ** | 2001 | 9/11 attacks |
| 1 vs 2 * | 18.50 | 10.13 ** | 2011 | Arab Spring | |
| Ireland and Southern European Countries | |||||
| Cyprus | 0 vs 1 * | 17.14 | 8.58 ** | 2002 | Financial Crisis |
| 1 vs 2 * | 11.19 | 10.13 ** | 2009 | Financial Crisis | |
| Greece | 0 vs 1 * | 24.12 | 8.58 ** | 2012 | Financial Crisis |
| Ireland | 0 vs 1 * | 36.91 | 8.58 ** | 2008 | Financial Crisis |
| Italy | 0 vs 1 * | 6.58 | 8.58 ** | None | – |
| Portugal | 0 vs 1 * | 6.48 | 8.58 ** | None | – |
| Spain | 0 vs 1 * | 43.38 | 8.58 ** | 2009 | Financial Crisis |
| Other Countries and Madeira Island | |||||
| Haiti | 0 vs 1 * | 105.60 | 8.58 ** | 2010 | Earthquake |
| Madeira | 0 vs 1 * | 105.60 | 8.58 ** | 1993 | Storm |
| 1 vs 2 * | 11.19 | 10.13 ** | 2009/2010 | Financial Crisis + Storm | |
| Mexico | 0 vs 1 * | 105.60 | 8.58 ** | 2009 | AH1N1 Influenza Crisis |
| New Zealand | 0 vs 1 * | 3.44 | 8.58 ** | None | – |
| UK | 0 vs 1 * | 124.32 | 8.58 ** | 2001 | Foot and Mouth Disease |
| USA | 0 vs 1 * | 50.01 | 8.58 ** | 2001 | 9/11 Attacks |
| 1 vs 2 * | 26.86 | 10.13 ** | 2009 | Financial Crisis | |