Table 5.

Results of simplified ARMAX model for SARS

Variable	Coefficient (P-value)
	China	Hong Kong	Singapore	Taiwan
Constant
Sit	−298.57** (0.010)	−149.27 (0.259)	−798.99 (0.121)	−174.65** (0.004)
Si(t−1)		−481.22** (0.000)	−1742.45** (0.005)
Si(t−2)	304.20** (0.008)	512.27** (0.000)	1523.92** (0.011)	90.08** (0.049)
Si(t−3)		299.09** (0.028)	1079.02** (0.035)	107.78* (0.053)
Δyi(t−1)	1.19** (0.000)	0.41** (0.011)		0.33** (0.036)
Δyi(t−2)	−0.54** (0.000)
MA(1)	−1.23** (0.000)
MA(2)	0.52** (0.012)	−0.59** (0.000)	−0.49** (0.000)	−0.21** (0.004)
MA(3)		−0.34** (0.007)	−0.47** (0.000)	−0.76** (0.000)
${\overline{R}}^2$	0.209	0.561	0.473	0.648

^*Means significantly within the 10% significance level.

^**Means significantly under the 5% significance level.