Table 3. 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture in women from the UK (BMI set at 25kg/m²).

The probabilities ‘no prior fracture’ and ‘prior fracture’ are calculated using FRAX in the absence of other clinical risk factors. The remaining probabilities are for recent (0-2 years) sentinel fractures adjusted according to the present study

FRAX probability model	Age (Years)	No prior fracture (FRAX)	Prior fracture (FRAX)	Recent vertebral fracture	Recent hip fracture	Recent humerus fracture	Recent forearm fracture
MOF
	40	2.6	5.9	42	40	28	21
	50	3.4	7.2	19	17	14	11
	60	5.9	12	22	19	18	14
	70	11	20	30	25	28	22
	80	17	27	33	26	34	27
	90	22	34	34	25	37	28
Hip fracture
	40	0.1	0.7	1.5	5.5	0.5	1.1
	50	0.2	0.8	1.5	4.0	0.7	1.2
	60	0.7	2.1	3.7	6.8	2.0	3.2
	70	2.3	4.8	6.7	8.8	4.8	6.4
	80	6.9	10	11	10	9.8	11
	90	12	18	18	13	17	19