Table 3.
Performance for the Prediction of Hospital Mortality among Patients with Suspected Infection in Cohort 1
| Variable | qSOFA ≥ 2 | qSOFA ≥ 1 | qSOFA ≥ 1 or Lactate > 2 mmol/L | SIRS Criteria ≥ 2 | Organ Dysfunction ≥ 1 | SIRS ≥ 2 + Organ Dysfunction ≥ 1 | SOFA ≥ 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N | 5,460 | 5,460 | 5,319 | 5,460 | 5,460 | 5,460 | 5,189 |
| Sensitivity, % | 53.9 (50.3–57.5) | 84.9 (82.1–87.3) | 91.3 (89.0–93.2) | 75.6 (72.4–78.6) | 89.9 (87.5–91.9) | 68.7 (65.2–71.9) | 88.3 (85.8–90.5) |
| Specificity, % | 83.6 (82.5–84.6) | 49.8 (48.3–51.2) | 36.0 (34.6–37.4) | 24.6 (23.4–25.9) | 51.1 (49.7–52.6) | 64.0 (62.6–65.3) | 59.5 (58.0–60.9) |
| PPV, % | 34.9 (32.2–37.7) | 21.6 (20.2–23.1) | 19.2 (17.9–20.5) | 14.1 (13.0–15.2) | 23.1 (21.6–24.7) | 23.7 (22.0–25.6) | 27.1 (25.3–28.9) |
| NPV, % | 91.7 (90.9–92.5) | 95.3 (94.3–96.1) | 96.1 (95.1–97.0) | 86.1 (84.1–87.9) | 96.9 (96.1–97.5) | 92.6 (91.6–93.5) | 96.8 (96.0–97.4) |
| Positive LR | 3.28 (2.99–3.60) | 1.69 (1.62–1.76) | 1.43 (1.38–1.47) | 1.00 (0.96–1.05) | 1.84 (1.77–1.91) | 1.91 (1.79–2.03) | 2.18 (2.09–2.28) |
| Negative LR | 0.55 (0.51–0.60) | 0.30 (0.26–0.36) | 0.24 (0.19–0.31) | 0.99 (0.87–1.13) | 0.20 (0.16–0.24) | 0.49 (0.44–0.55) | 0.20 (0.16–0.24) |
| AUROC, % | 75.0 (76.9–73.2) | 75.0 (76.9–73.2) | 82.4 (83.9–80.8) | 53.4 (55.6–51.2) | 79.2 (80.8–77.5) | 79.3 (81.0–77.5) | 83.3 (84.9–81.7) |
Definition of abbreviations: AUROC = area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; LR = likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; qSOFA = Quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment; SIRS = systemic inflammatory response syndrome; SOFA = Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
Data are expressed as estimate (95% confidence interval).