Table 7.
Actual brucellosis incidence in 2019 and the out-of-sample prediction for ARIMA (Model 1) and ARIMAX (Model 2).
| Time | Actual incidence | Model 1 | Model 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 95%CI | Value | 95%CI | ||
| Jan 2019 | 2390 | 1696.793 | (735.412, 2658.175) | 1851.391 | (1007.858, 2694.924) |
| Feb 2019 | 2227 | 1833.312 | (609.734, 3056.889) | 1738.133 | (659.862, 2816.403) |
| Mar 2019 | 4021 | 3808.437 | (2430.329, 5189.545) | 4035.677 | (2823.679, 5247.675) |
| Apr 2019 | 4559 | 4406.562 | (2919.176, 5893.947) | 4927.924 | (3627.244, 6228.604) |
| May 2019 | 5238 | 5333.362 | (3759.529, 6907.195) | 5391.204 | (4025.604, 6756.804) |