Table 2.
Baseline management and changes in management profiles of farms participating in the Alberta Johne's Disease Initiative (AJDI)1
| Parameter2 | Estimate | Input distribution3 |
|---|---|---|
| Farms in management profile 1 (%) | 3 | Beta (62.05; 2,006.28) |
| Farms in management profile 2 (%) | 15 | Beta (54.25; 307.42) |
| Farms in management profile 3 (%) | 40 | Beta (38; 57) |
| Farms in management profile 4 (%) | 42 | (100 − profile 1+2+3)4 |
| Farms improving at least 1 management profile (%) | 26 | Beta (12.31; 35.05) |
| Among those, farms improving 2 profiles (%) | 19 | Beta (9.85; 41.99) |
| Farms downgrading at least 1 management profile (%) | 11 | Beta (6.27; 50.69) |
| Among those, farms downgrading 2 profiles (%) | 4 | Beta (2.46; 58.98) |
Data obtained through review of 369 first- and 227 second-year AJDI risk assessments.2Management profiles reflected the risk of horizontal transmission of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) between adult infectious and young susceptible animals, with profile 1 having the best within-herd prevention of MAP transmission and profile 4 having the poorest within-herd prevention of MAP transmission. These profiles were assigned according to the management in 3 areas: A: calving, B: diet, C: housing.3Beta distribution (α; β).4To avoid cumulative percentage >100 through random sampling of all percentages in parallel.