Table 1.
Most relevant results of literature review on scenario planning in logistics. Description: 18 identified literature sources that link scenarios and logistics.
| Author(s) (year) | Type | Focusa | Horizon in years | Research details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English and Keran (1976) | Journal article | A | 25 | Forecast of passenger/cargo traffic and technology |
| Delphi-based scenarios (23 experts on air traffic and technology) | ||||
| Gray and Helmer (1976) | Journal article | A | 30 | The use of futures analysis for transportation research planning (focus on transport, but also broad range of societal issues) |
| Delphi-based scenarios (46 experts evaluated 263 developments in 17 influence areas) | ||||
| Robeson (1988) | Journal article | A | 8 | The future of business logistics, prioritised list of expected trends in distribution, ranked by importance and impact |
| Comparison of two Delphi-based scenario studies of the Council of Logistics Management (1983/1987), 76 logistics managers surveyed in 1987 study | ||||
| Sviden (1988) | Journal article | A | 50 | Future information systems for road traffic |
| Delphi-based scenarios (120 professionals, researchers, and informed generalists; 31 participants in second Delphi round), mainly qualitative research (experts’ visions) | ||||
| Cooper (1994) | Report | A | 8 | Logistics futures in Europe |
| Delphi-based scenarios (200 logistics experts from six countries) | ||||
| Lynch et al. (1994) | Journal article | A | 30 | Long-range forecast of logistics in Canada |
| Development of 26 small Delphi-based scenarios (20 experts from logistics industry) | ||||
| Perry (1996) | Journal article | A | 10 | Implications for design and management of logistics systems in the 1990s based on future economic and technological projections |
| Two surveys among logistics managers (first sample of 6000; second sample of 120) | ||||
| Gausemeier et al. (2001) | Journal article | A | 10 | Paper on an internal scenario study of Deutsche Bahn (2000); researches the future of the courier, express, and parcel markets and develops four market scenarios as well as four technology scenarios |
| Scenario management (Heinz Nixdorf Institute), involved project team of 13 experts | ||||
| Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo), 2002, Institute for Mobility Research (ifmo), 2005 | Report | A | 20 | The future of mobility |
| Scenario approach of Geschka & Partner Consultancy, expert-based scenarios (over 80 experts involved) | ||||
| Sodhi (2003) | Journal article | M | – | Proposes a concept for combining strategic supply chain planning and scenario planning |
| Stead and Banister (2003) | Journal article | M/A | 15 | Outline of a systematic and logical framework for the development of policy scenarios |
| Three scenarios on sustainable mobility in the EU supported by a survey and interviews | ||||
| Boasson (2004) | Thesis | M | – | Examination of methodological applicability of scenario planning to supply chain context |
| European Community (2004), see also Giorgi (2004) | Report | M/A | 16 | Foresight for transport; clarification of pathways through which external and/or policy variables impact on transport and mobility |
| Delphi-based scenarios (94 experts from transportation and mobility) | ||||
| Singh (2004) | Working paper | A | 15 | Review of the leading opinions on the future of supply chains |
| Working paper of the SC2020 project (MIT-Zaragoza Logistics Program) | ||||
| Review and synthesis of 46 publications, and composition of a list of key drivers | ||||
| Duin et al. (2005) | Book section | A | 8 | The future of RFID applications in logistics |
| Takes expert views as basis, analyses and simulates the RFID integration into the supply chain until 2013 by software support (causal cross-impact analysis) | ||||
| Bergman et al. (2006) | Journal article | M/A | 10 | Case study on scenario development in the Finnish electrical engineering and electricity distribution industry for the coming decade |
| Two-day scenario session with 13 participating organisations/institutes | ||||
| Garvin and Levesque (2006) | Case Study | M/A | 20 | Harvard Business School Case on scenario planning activities at United Parcel Service |
| Two scenario sessions in 1997 and 2004 to define the Corporate Charter and mission statement, to identify the key themes and insights, and to create a discussion platform | ||||
| Piecyk and McKinnon (2009) | Journal article | A | 10 | Carbon Footprint of Freight Transport in UK |
| Delphi-based scenarios (100 logistics experts) | ||||
a
Focus of publications: M (Methodology), A (Application), M/A (Mix).