Table 2.
Final list of projections in scenario study. Description: 41 projections that have been evaluated in the Delphi research according to their probability, impact, and desirability for 2025.
| No. | Projections for 2025 |
|---|---|
| Political–legal | |
| 1 | The problem of energy supply (e.g. scarcity of fossil fuels, nuclear power) remains unsolved globally |
| 2 | The almost entire recycling of products and scrap within the value chain (“reverse logistics”) has become a legal regulation |
| 3 | Source-based allocation of costs from the usage of natural resources (pollution, exhaustion of natural resources, etc.) has been accomplished to a large extent |
| 4 | International barriers of trade are significantly lower than compared to the year 2007 |
| 5 | Intensified climate protection regulations have increased the attractiveness of rail and sea transportation |
| 6 | The absolute national investments in traffic infrastructure have significantly decreased in real terms |
| 7 | Increasing international harmonisation has led to global alignments of political and legal conditions |
| Economic | |
| 8 | Global sourcing, production and distribution are common practice in almost all markets and value chains worldwide |
| 9 | The quality of a company’s global networks and relationships has become the key determinant of competitiveness |
| 10 | Many developing and emerging countries have narrowed the gap to the industrial nations by economically catching up in the tertiary and quaternary industry sectors |
| 11 | The demand for local goods and services has significantly increased, primarily due to resource scarcity, environmental pollution, and the assimilation of living standards between developing/emerging countries and the industrial nations |
| 12 | Global standards and norms have been established that assure cost optimised planning, control and execution of international transports and their respective information flows |
| 13 | The cost factor “labour” has been displaced by the factor “access to resources” leading to relocations of production to resource sites |
| Socio-cultural | |
| 14 | Customer demands for convenience, simplicity, promptness, and flexibility have turned logistics into a decisive success factor for customer retention |
| 15 | The supply and disposal among densely populated areas on the one hand and depopulated, rural regions on the other hand have led to location-dependent price structures for logistical services |
| 16 | Security costs and protection costs against industrial espionage, crime, and terrorism have disproportionately increased in the logistics industry |
| 17 | The social responsibility has lost its national basis. Logistics service providers increasingly make location and personnel decisions based upon global ethical standards and independently from national, cultural, and ethnical interests |
| 18 | Labour shortages for young, highly-qualified, mobile personnel have led to restraints in company growth |
| 19 | The increasing knowledge expansion and the focus on knowledge generation, processing, and dissemination have led to a substantial ongoing relocation of production activities outside of Germany (international division of labour) |
| Technological | |
| 20 | Paperless transport has become common practice in national and international transport business |
| 21 | Due to the integration of physical and electronic document flows, almost all documents reach their receiver the same day |
| 22 | Innovations in transport logistics (e.g. new types of vehicles, alternative propulsion, innovative materials) have substantially contributed to the reduction of resource consumption |
| 23 | New technologies in logistics obtain faster acceptance as compared to 2007 |
| 24 | Required information and communication technology demands large capital investments, which can hardly be raised by small and medium-sized logistics service providers alone |
| 25 | Biometric identification has become standard identification technology in logistics and enables fast and secure access controls |
| 26 | Intelligent, automated planning and control systems (agent systems, autonomous cooperation) are widely used in logistics |
| 27 | Innovations in transport logistics (e.g. new types of vehicles, alternative propulsion, innovative materials) have substantially contributed to a recovery of the current traffic infrastructure |
| 28 | The area-wide utilisation of e-business has led to direct sales contacts between end customers and producers, which resulted in the displacement of wholesale and retail |
| 29 | The decentralised production of many goods on-site in small-scale factories (fabbing, 3D printer, digitised products) has led to substantial structural changes in the logistics industry |
| Industrial structure | |
| 30 | The demand for high-value, customised logistics services has increased disproportionately |
| 31 | Small and medium-sized specialised logistics service providers have merged into global networks in order to stay competitive |
| 32 | Customers increasingly demand consultancy services from logistics service providers in order to cope with the increasing complexity and dynamism in their markets |
| 33 | The market for digitised document logistics has largely displaced the market for physical document logistics |
| 34 | Alternative distribution networks have been established in the CEP-market (courier, express, parcel). Petrol stations, kiosks, and local public transport are increasingly used for pickup and delivery of parcels |
| 35 | The consolidation phase among large logistics service providers has reached saturation so that the global mass market is divided among five to nine providers |
| 36 | The volumes of classical logistics services (transport, handling, storage) have significantly increased |
| 37 | Large logistics service providers (more than 250 employees, more than €50 million turnover) take longer planning horizons for their vision and strategy development into consideration and therefore increasingly use corresponding futures methodologies (e.g. scenario technique, early warning systems) |
| 38 | Customers increasingly take ecological aspects into consideration for their establishment of international logistics networks and the selection of logistics service providers |
| 39 | The logistics industry is more strongly affected by large-scale outsourcing deals than in 2007 |
| 40 | Customers expect document logistics to be an integral element of the service portfolio of a logistics service provider |
| 41 | Service providers from adjacent industries (e.g. facility management, IT-services, security services) increasingly enter the market for logistics services so that the classical borders between industry, retail and wholesale, and logistics services are blurred |