Table 4.
Delphi statistics: illustration of convergence among experts regarding expectational expected probability estimates.
| Thesis no. and short title | Round 1 (n=30) | Round 2 (n=30) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IQR | Mean | SD | IQR | Mean | SD | Mean change | SD change | Impact | Desirability | |
| Political–legal | ||||||||||
| 1. Energy supply | (2) | 6.9 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 20.7 | |||||
| 2. Reverse logistics | 3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | (2) | 6.6 | 1.9 | 3.7 | −12.2 | 3.9 | 76.7 |
| 3. Source-based allocation | 4 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 5.7 | −17.2 | 3.4 | 96.7 |
| 4. Barriers of trade | 3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | (2) | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | −12.4 | 3.7 | 80.0 |
| 5. Attractiveness of rail and sea | 3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 3.1 | −6.1 | 3.6 | 76.7 |
| 6. Traffic infrastructure | 4 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 | −8.3 | 3.8 | 30.0 |
| 7. International harmonisation | 5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.9 | 2.0 | −4.1 | −13.5 | 2.7 | 80.0 |
| Economical | ||||||||||
| 8. Global sourcing | (2) | 7.7 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 90.0 | |||||
| 9. Global networks | 3 | 6.8 | 1.9 | (1) | 7.0 | 1.4 | 3.9 | −23.7 | 3.8 | 72.4 |
| 10. Developing countries | (2) | 6.7 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 80.0 | |||||
| 11. Local goods | 3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | (2) | 5.0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | −24.7 | 3.5 | 63.3 |
| 12. Standards | 4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | −7.9 | −20.4 | 3.5 | 65.5 |
| 13. Labour vs. resourcesa, c | 3 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 100.0c | |||||
| Socio-cultural | ||||||||||
| 14. Customer demands | (2) | 7.8 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 89.7 | |||||
| 15. Location-dependent prices | 4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | (2) | 6.5 | 1.9 | 5.4 | −17.5 | 3.3 | 51.7 |
| 16. Security costs | 3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 5.9 | −19.2 | 3.8 | 25.0 |
| 17. Social responsibility | 4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | −6.4 | 3.2 | 50.0 |
| 18. Labour shortage | 5 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | −17.9 | 3.6 | 16.7 |
| 19. Production relocation | 4 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 8.7 | −14.6 | 3.7 | 40.0 |
| Technological | ||||||||||
| 20. Paperless transport | 3 | 7.1 | 2.1 | (2) | 7.5 | 1.5 | 6.1 | −27.9 | 3.5 | 86.7 |
| 21. Document flows | 3 | 7.1 | 2.1 | (2) | 7.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | −19.3 | 3.3 | 86.7 |
| 22. Transport innovation—resources | 5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 3 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 12.2 | −22.3 | 3.5 | 80.0 |
| 23. Technology acceptance | 3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | (2) | 5.9 | 1.6 | 7.2 | −19.3 | 3.4 | 89.7 |
| 24. ITC investments | 5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 3 | 5.7 | 2.0 | −0.6 | −14.0 | 3.6 | 31.0 |
| 25. Biometric identification | 3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | (2) | 5.6 | 1.7 | 3.7 | −6.7 | 2.2 | 72.4 |
| 26. Agent systems | 3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | (2) | 5.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 | −4.5 | 3.4 | 75.0 |
| 27. Transport innovation—traffic infrastructure | 5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | −4.7 | −5.0 | 3.5 | 80.0 |
| 28. E-Business | 3 | 4.90 | 2.0 | 3 | 4.87 | 1.8 | −0.7 | −7.0 | 3.4 | 34.5 |
| 29. Fabbing | (2) | 4.2 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 50.0 | |||||
| Industrial structure | ||||||||||
| 30. Customised logistics | (1) | 7.2 | 1.7 | 4.3 | 82.8 | |||||
| 31. SME mergers | (2) | 7.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 90.0 | |||||
| 32. Consultancy | (1) | 6.9 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 93.3 | |||||
| 33. Digitised document logistics | 3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | (2) | 6.8 | 1.6 | 3.6 | −23.1 | 3.0 | 80.0 |
| 34. CEP-market | 3 | 6.6 | 1.9 | (2) | 6.7 | 1.7 | 2.5 | −11.2 | 3.2 | 83.3 |
| 35. Consolidation | (2) | 6.6 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 37.9 | |||||
| 36. Classical logistics servicesb | 3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | (2) | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | −9.2 | 3.9 | 71.4 |
| 37. Futures orientation | 2 | 6.4 | 1.8 | (2) | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.1 | −17.8 | 3.6 | 79.3 |
| 38. Ecological aspects | 3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | (2) | 6.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | −14.9 | 3.4 | 100.0 |
| 39. Outsourcingc | 4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 100.0c | |||||
| 40. Document logistics as integral element | 4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | (2) | 5.8 | 1.8 | 6.1 | −16.3 | 3.1 | 55.2 |
| 41. Adjacent industries | 5 | 5.60 | 2.2 | 4 | 5.57 | 2.1 | −0.6 | −7.2 | 3.0 | 43.3 |
Note: Brackets mark theses, where final consensus was reached, i.e. an interquartile range of minimum 2.
a
n=24.
b
n=29.
c
Thesis proposed by expert in round 1, solely assessed in round 2.