Table 6.
Scenarios incl. projections, main arguments, conclusion, number of expert entries.
| No. | Projection for 2025 and PRO/CONTRA arguments | Number of entries by experts |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The problem of energy supply (e.g. scarcity of fossil fuels, nuclear power) remains unsolved globally | |
| Low probability | The technological innovations until 2025 are not considered efficient enough to compensate the increase | 5 entries |
| Alternative sources of energy will be used more often in the future | 4 entries | |
| The extraction of difficult-to-access fossil fuels will become easier and less expensive | 2 entries | |
| High probability | Due to energy sector lobbying, conflicts of interest in international negotiations are likely to hinder the development of a turnaround in the use of energy | 10 entries |
| The combination of progressing resource depletion and increasing demand for energy by developing and emerging countries will increase | 5 entries | |
| New technologies and energy savings in industrialised nations will not be sufficient to compensate the increase in demand | 5 entries | |
| Conclusion | Increasing costs for fuel will give rise to high transport costs since the development of resource-saving energy will not be finished yet. Due to the increasing energy costs, operating expenses of logistics property, such as warehouses, will also rise. This will be noticeable in the field of temperature-controlled logistics in particular, due to the higher energy consumption. An emerging solution will be the installation of solar cells on the roofs of warehouses and distribution centres. Nevertheless, due to the energy problem, logistics services are likely to be more cost-intensive in 2025 | |
| 8 | Global sourcing, production and distribution are common practice in almost all markets and value chains worldwide | |
| Low probability | Regional structures offer advantages in some markets | 3 entries |
| High probability | In order to remain competitive, companies cannot ignore the growing advantages, which result from globalisation | 11 entries |
| The megatrend started years ago, will intensify over the next 20 years, and is irreversible | 7 entries | |
| Conclusion | For 2025, it is also considered highly probable that global sourcing, production, and distribution will have become common practice in almost all markets and value chains worldwide. The unsolved problem of energy supply is not expected to stop the globalisation movement | |
| 9 | The quality of a company’s global networks and relationships has become the key determinant of competitiveness | |
| Low probability | Technologies and optimised information flows make networking easier and thereby is one of the less important competitive factors | 4 entries |
| Regional networks are established | 3 entries | |
| High probability | The creation of performance will become less important, rather relationships make the difference | 8 entries |
| Most industries will be organised according to divisions of labour | 4 entries | |
| Know-how inter-linked with production advantages is the success model of the future. Networking is the main prerequisite in order to generate knowledge and use it profitably | 3 entries | |
| Conclusion | It is very likely that the quality of a company’s global networks and relationships will be the key determinant of competitiveness in 2025. For this reason, small and medium-sized, specialised logistics service providers will have merged into global networks | |
| 10 | Many developing and emerging countries have narrowed the gap to the industrial nations by economically catching up in the tertiary and quaternary industry sectors | |
| Low probability | The catch-up process will be slower | 9 entries |
| Brain Drain will hinder the development of the quarternary sector | 3 entries | |
| High probability | High degree of economic growth | 4 entries |
| Higher levels of education and salaries | 4 entries | |
| Process already underway, especially in the tertiary sector | 3 entries | |
| Conclusion | The ongoing globalisation will undoubtedly produce winners and losers in the coming 20 years. Winners will, to a large extent, come from the group of developing and emerging countries. A multitude of these countries is expected to narrow the gap to industrial nations by economically catching up in the tertiary and quarternary industry sectors. Strong economic growth, increases in the levels of education and wages, as well as IT offshoring activities are current indicators. The major drivers will be resource abundancy, e-business, and long-term Western knowledge transfer. This development, however, also means that the environment of globally-active logistics service providers is becoming more competitive | |
| 14 | Customer demands for convenience, simplicity, promptness, and flexibility have turned logistics into a decisive success factor for customer retention | |
| Low probability | Price remains a primary factor in decision criteria | 3 entries |
| Buying power and payment reserves could develop insufficiently | 2 entries | |
| High probability | Logistics offers opportunity for differentiation if products are similar | 10 entries |
| A significant trend is already apparent in all four areas | 6 entries | |
| Convenience, simplicity, promptness, and flexibility will become more and more important | 4 entries | |
| Conclusion | For 2025, customers are expected to be more sophisticated, segmented, and demanding in terms of convenience, simplicity, promptness, and flexibility. It will be even more imperative for logistics service providers to engage in new service developments in order to adapt to the changing customer needs. Logistics will become a decisive success factor for customer retention | |
| 20 | Paperless transport has become common practice in national and international transport business | |
| Low probability | Legal and safety regulations will increase | 3 entries |
| Emotional hurdles have to be overcome | 2 entries | |
| High probability | Technical capability already exists | 11 entries |
| Standardisation of IT and interfaces will simplify integration | 5 entries | |
| Conclusion | Companies will strive for huge cost-saving potentials and process-related optimisations. It is expected that increasing internet security, higher data transmission capacities, as well as deregulation of legal requirements will further drive the substitution. Paperless transport is likely to become standard in national and international transport business | |
| 21 | Due to the integration of physical and electronic document flows, almost all documents reach their receiver the same day | |
| Low probability | Heterogenity in the transport industry and numerous interfaces make the implementation of an integrated system difficult | 3 entries |
| Legal and saftety requirements are necessary in sub-areas | 1 entry | |
| High probability | The technical capability exists | 6 entries |
| Paperlessness is already widespread in CEP services | 5 entries | |
| High cost-saving potentials exist | 3 entries | |
| Conclusion | It is expected that, through efficient document logistics solutions, a seamless integration of physical and electronic document flows will have become standard. Against this background, it is likely that almost all documents will reach the receiver the same day. Such business models are already technically feasible today and ongoing standardisation in information and communication technology drives us towards such a future. Thus, logistics services will be provided faster in 2025 | |
| 30 | The demand for high-value, customised logistics services has increased disproportionately | |
| Low probability | Higher costs will result from customised services | 2 entries |
| High probability | There will be an increase in customer demands | 14 entries |
| Stronger networking will be required | 4 entries | |
| The complexity will increase | 1 entry | |
| Conclusion | Logistics services are also likely to be more customised in 2025. Expected changes in customer demands towards more convenience, simplicity, promptness, and flexibility have already been noted before. In line with these changes, the demand for high-value, customised logistics services is considered to increase disproportionately in the future. This is primarily attributed to the increasing complexity and diversity of networked business processes. The relocation of production and outsourcing initiatives are considered the key drivers of the development. In particular, reductions in the value added increase the demands for effective and efficient logistics networks. In this context, logistics performance is increasingly seen as competitive factor | |
| 31 | Small and medium-sized , specialised logistics service providers have merged into global networks in order to stay competitive | |
| Low probability | Integration problems will occur | 3 entries |
| Special interests by individual providers | 2 entries | |
| High probability | It will be possible to illustrate global supply chains | 9 entries |
| The financial performance and cost-optimisation potentials will improve | 5 entries | |
| Conclusion | Small- and medium-sized, specialised logistics service providers will have merged into global networks. It will allow them to offer services beyond their regional niche portfolios and provides them with financial power. In addition, customers will increasingly ask for global presence and network capabilities. Cost optimisation is seen as an additional driver of the merger process. Thus, the logistics services industry will be more global and more networked in 2025 | |
| 32 | Customers increasingly demand consultancy services from logistics service providers in order to cope with the increasing complexity and dynamism in their markets | |
| Low probability | Customer companies know their markets better than logistics service providers | 4 entries |
| High probability | Increasing complexity increases the demand for consulting | 6 entries |
| Logistics service providers have branch-specific and geographical characteristics know-how at their fingertips | 2 entries | |
| Logistics service providers have cross-industry knowledge | 2 entries | |
| Conclusion | Uncertainty in business will have steadily increased, leading to more severe risks than before. Due to the global cross-industry activities, logistics service providers are building up a comprehensive knowledge base that they can use for consultancy services. In 2025, it is likely that many of their customers will demand not only classical logistics services but also consultancy in order to cope with the increasing complexity and dynamism in their markets. This situation may primarily be attributed to three developments. First, the globalisation and the international division of labour will have reached new, higher levels. Second, the “care factor” will be more distinctive as a consequence of extensive outsourcing initiatives. Third, the likely occurrence of this projection is seen as a concomitant phenomenon of the increasing information overload. Thus, logistics service providers are expected to act in more complex and more dynamic environments | |
| 33 | The market for digitised document logistics has largely displaced the market for physical document logistics | |
| Low probability | There are application fields in which physical documents are superior | 2 entries |
| Sub-areas will continue to be protected by legal obstacles | 1 entry | |
| High probability | Cost and processing advantages will exist | 4 entries |
| Safety standards and data processing capacities will increase | 2 entries | |
| Conclusion | The logistics business will be more digitised in the future. Document logistics will play an even greater role in 2025 than today. Presumably, the market for digitised services will have displaced the market for physical document logistics to a large extent. Nevertheless, in some business segments, such as direct marketing and private communication, physical document logistics will still be preferred over digitised procedures. The major challenge of digitisation will be to keep up with the newest technological standards in order to satisfy customer demands and to guarantee the trouble-free integration in global networks | |
| 34 | Alternative distribution networks have been established in the CEP-market (courier, express, parcel). Petrol stations, kiosks, and local public transport are increasingly used for pickup and delivery of parcels | |
| Low probability | Established networks in Germany are very strong | 4 entries |
| Punctuality, reliability and endurance of alternative networks are not safeguarded | 1 entry | |
| High probability | There will be many opportunities for cost savings | 7 entries |
| The quality of service will improve | 2 entries | |
| Conclusion | Alternative distribution concepts for the last mile will additionally create more convenience for the customer by new, time-independent pickup and delivery processes | |