| Wildcard 1: Personal fabricators |
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Direct fabrication of objects from computer models by using additive-fabrication-technologies, such as 3D printing and laser sintering
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The personal fabricator would be an affordable device for the production (fabrication) of goods in one’s own home
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3D printers are already available for $4995 (e.g. Desktop Factory, Inc.)
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Decentralisation for less complex consumer goods; consumer becomes “pro-sumer”, i.e. producer and consumer in one, and is strongly integrated in development and production process
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Strong increase in bulk transport of fabbing raw materials
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In some industries, manufacturers and retailers would become obsolete (cf. music industry)
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| Wildcard 2: Terrorist attacks on logistics networks |
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Disturbance of networks have detrimental effects on the economy of a country
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Sea trade is concentrated on a few straits where attacks would have dramatic effects
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Strong dependency on maritime logistics infrastructure, e.g. 80% of the oil for Japan, South Korea, and China is transported through the Strait of Malakka
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Terrorist attacks on oil tankers could block-off regions, e.g. a closure of the hub port Singapore alone can easily exceed US$200 billion per year from disruptions to inventory and production cycles (Ho, 2005, p. 8)
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A one-week halt in the flow of cargo containers into America’s two largest ports would cost national economy $65 million to $150 million a day (Congressional Budget Office, 2006, p. 2)
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Global procurement, production, and distribution may concentrate on secure regions and avoid endangered locations and routes
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High insurance premiums may eliminate certain trade routes
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Shortfalls in supply could hinder the development of affected countries
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Ultimately, efforts to liberalise international trade which have gone on for years could be thwarted
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| Wildcard 3: Spread of a pandemic through logistics networks |
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Quick spread of a virus via international transport of people and animals possible
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World Health Organisation estimates that in case of a spread of the avian influenza virus (type A/H5N1) 1.5 billion people would have to be treated and 40 million could die
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Marsh and the Albright Group estimate that with a global epidemic 4.4 trillion dollars in losses could be expected; potential for workplace absences due to illnesses is at a rate of at least 35%
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The World Bank recently calculated that the mere occurrence of the bird flu in several East Asian countries, which did not claim many lives, caused costs between 0.1% and 0.2% of the GDP
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Nations and regional associations of countries would seal themselves off from potential regions of danger
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Trade and tourism would be discontinued as with the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia in 2002/2003
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Comprehensive state control and quarantine provisions would become effective
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Production and supply chains would be interrupted, particularly just-in-time production
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