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. 2020 Feb 26;80(5):578–606. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.019

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© 2020 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

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Fig. 1 — Fitting the cumulative number of confirmed cases from different geographic regions of China to the Boltzmann function.

(A) Plots of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 14, 2020, in mainland China (■), in Hubei Province (□), in Wuhan City (▲) and in other provinces (△), with the simulation results being plotted as color lines. Note: the reported cumulative number of confirmed cases of Hubei Province and Wuhan City were re-adjusted for data fitting due to the suddenly added cases by clinical features (for detail, refer to Table S1). (B) Plots of the cumulative number of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 as of Feb 14, 2020, in the most affected provinces (Guangdong, ■; Zhejiang, □; Henan, ▲; Hunan, △), with the simulation results being plotted as color lines. (C, D) Data of mainland China (panel C) and Hubei Province (panel D) were fitted to the Boltzmann function assuming that the relative uncertainty of the data follows a single-sided normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and a standard deviation of 10%. Original data are shown as circles; simulated results are presented as colored lines as indicated. Inserts show key statistics. The key date is defined as the date when the number of daily new confirmed cases is less than 0.1% of the potential total number. The low and high key dates were determined by the simulated curve of confidence interval (CI) at 2.5% and 97.5%, respectively. (E, F) The cumulative number of confirmed cases of 2003 SARS in China (panel E) and worldwide (panel F) are shown as black squares, and the simulation results are plotted as red short lines and parameters of each established function are shown in inserts. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)