Table 1.
Regression analysis results of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China.
| Regions | without uncertainty |
with uncertaintya |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| potential total number | key dateb | R2 | potential total number (mean, 95% CI) | key date (95% CI)b | |
| China | 72,800±600 | 2/28 | 0.999 | 79,589 (71,576, 93,855) | (2/28, 3/10) |
| Hubei Province | 59,300±600 | 2/27 | 0.999 | 64,817 (58,223, 77,895) | (2/27, 3/10) |
| Wuhan City | 42,100±700 | 2/27 | 0.999 | 46,562 (40,812, 57,678) | (2/28, 3/10) |
| Other provinces | 12,800±100 | 2/27 | 0.999 | 13,956 (12,748, 16,092) | (2/27, 3/13) |
| Guangdong Province | 1300±10 | 2/22 | 0.999 | 1415 (1324, 1550) | (2/22, 3/01) |
| Zhejiang Province | 1170±10 | 2/20 | 0.997 | 1269 (1204, 1364) | (2/21, 2/27) |
| Henan Province | 1260±10 | 2/24 | 0.999 | 1372 (1271, 1559) | (2/26, 3/09) |
| Hunan Province | 1050±10 | 2/26 | 0.999 | 1140 (1050, 1279) | (2/28, 3/11) |
| Beijing City | 394±4 | 2/25 | 0.999 | 429 (395, 486) | (2/25, 3/11) |
| Shanghai City | 328±3 | 2/22 | 0.999 | 356 (334, 388) | (2/22, 3/01) |
| Guangzhou City | 337±3 | 2/20 | 0.998 | 365 (346, 393) | (2/20, 2/28) |
| Shenzhen City | 397±4 | 2/18 | 0.998 | 430 (407, 461) | (2/17, 2/25) |
a
The reported cumulative number of confirmed cases may have uncertainty. Assuming the relative uncertainty follows a single-sided normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and a standard deviation of 10%, the potential total number and key dates were estimated at 95% CI. For detail, refer to the Methods section and Figs. 1C, D, S2 and S3.
b
Key date is determined when the number of daily new confirmed cases is less than 0.1% of the potential total number.