Table 2.

Estimated step (B_t) and smooth break (S_t) interventions from structural time series models for both property and violent crimes.

Offence	Break 1995	Gradual 1996	Gradual 1998	Gradual 2000	Gradual 2002	Gradual 2004	Gradual 2006
	Bt	St	St	St	St	St	St
Burglary	1.95	0.48	0.10	1.48	0.60	0.94	0.07
Larceny	1.24	0.35	0.38	2.37	1.39	1.44	1.26
Motor vehicle theft	1.39	0.02	0.06	0.91	0.65	0.62	0.75
Robbery	0.85	0.09	0.37	1.71	0.76	0.89	0.15
Aggravated assault	0.32	0.24	0.16	1.45	0.82	1.21	0.74
Murder (2nd degree)	1.83	0.55	1.34	2.68	1.78	1.09	0.69
Rape (forcible)	0.96	0.55	0.69	1.79	0.78	0.61	0.47

Note: We report t-tests (absolute values) for the step B_t and smooth break S_t interventions. The break for B_t takes place in January 1995. The start of the smooth break S_t is τ₁ and corresponds with January 1995 while τ₂ is the end of the gradual break and is January in the year indicated by the column headings.