Table 2.

Cumulative Incidence by ALT Category and Outcome Event

	Cumulative Incidence (%) (95% Confidence Interval)
	Low (N = 29)	Medium-Low (N = 488)	Medium-High (N = 132)	High (N = 22)
Liver Disease
10-year risk	0	0.6 (0.2–1.7)	0.8 (0.1–3.8)	4.5 (0.3–18.9)
20-year risk	0	1.0 (0.4–2.3)	0.8 (0.1–3.8)	13.6 (3.4–30.9)
Overall Cancer
10-year risk	10.3 (2.6–24.3)	3.1 (1.8–4.9)	0.8 (0.1–3.8)	4.5 (0.3–18.9)
20-year risk	17.2 (6.3–32.7)	8.4 (6.2–11.1)	6.1 (2.8–11.0)	18.2 (5.7–36.3)
Ischemic Heart Disease
10-year risk	3.4 (0.3–14.9)	3.7 (2.3–5.6)	0.8 (0.1–3.8)	0
20-year risk	3.4 (0.3–14.9)	9.3 (6.9–12.0)	6.8 (3.3–12.0)	9.1 (1.6–25.1)
Diabetes
10-year risk	0	0.4 (0.1–1.4)	4.5 (1.9–9.1)	4.5 (0.3–18.9)
20-year risk	3.4 (0.3–14.9)	1.0 (0.4–2.3)	12.1 (7.3–18.3)	9.1 (1.6–25.1)
No Event
10-year risk	86 (67–95)	92 (89–94)	92 (85–95)	86 (63–95)
20-year risk	76 (56–88)	79 (75–82)	72 (63–79)	50 (28–68)
Any Event
10-year risk	14 (5.4–33)	8.2 (6.1–11)	8.3 (4.7–15)	14 (4.6–37)
20-year risk	24 (12–44)	21 (18–25)	28 (21–37)	50 (32–72)

Notes: Note that the risk of “any event” is the sum of the risks of a diagnosis of liver disease, overall cancer, ischemic heart disease, or diabetes, as well as ‘death without liver disease, cancer, ischemic heart disease, or diabetes’ (before rounding). It is also 100% minus the “risk” of no event.