Table 1.
Parameters for estimating the facemask availability during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China.
| Parameter | Definition | Data source or assumptions | Model input |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ng.c | General population of mainland China | Data from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 | 1,395,380,000 |
| Ng.h | General population of Hubei province, China | Data from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 | 59,170,000 |
| Nh.c | Number of healthcare workers in mainland China | Data from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 | 12,300,325 |
| Nh.h | Number of healthcare workers in Hubei province | Data from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 | 521,930 |
| Nh.o | Number of healthcare workers in other regions | Data from China Health Statistics Yearbook 2019 | 11,778,395 |
| Ni(d) | Number of infected inpatient cases in mainland China on day d | Data from National Health Commission of the People 's Republic of China | Supplementary table S1 |
| Ns(d) | Number of suspected cases in mainland China on day d | Data from National Health Commission of the People 's Republic of China | Supplementary table S1 |
| No(d) | Number of medical observation cases in mainland China on day d | Data from National Health Commission of the People 's Republic of China | Supplementary table S1 |
| θ | Percentage of healthcare workers working on their positions | Assuming that 80% of total registered healthcare workers are working on their positions | 80% |
| α1(d) | Number of facemasks need of each healthcare worker in Hubei province each day | 20 Jan 2020: 2 Between 21 Jan 2020 and 12 Mar 2020 (China said peak of COVID-19 ended on 12 Mar): 10 Between 13 Mar 2020 and 30 June 2020 (Chinese medical expert predicted the end of COVID-19): 5 |
2 (d = 0) 10 (0<d ≤ 52) 5 (52<d ≤ 162) |
| α2(d) | Number of facemasks need of each healthcare worker in other regions each day | 20 Jan 2020: 2 Between 21 Jan 2020 and 12 Mar 2020 (China said peak of COVID-19 ended on 12 Mar): 5 Between 13 Mar 2020 and 30 June 2020 (Chinese medical expert predicted the end of COVID-19): 3 |
2 (d = 0) 5 (0<d ≤ 52) 3 (52<d ≤ 162) |
| σ1 | Percentage of N95 facemasks for all the consumption of facemasks by healthcare workers in Hubei province | Assuming that 50% facemasks for all the consumption of facemasks by healthcare workers in Hubei province | 50% |
| σ2 | Percentage of N95 facemasks for all the consumption of facemasks by healthcare workers in other regions in mainland China | Assuming that 10% N95 facemasks for all the consumption of facemasks by healthcare workers in other regions in mainland China | 10% |
| β | Number of facemasks need of each infected inpatient case each day | Assuming that each infected inpatient case would use five facemasks each day | 5 |
| γ | Number of facemasks need of each suspected case each day | Assuming that each suspected case would use two facemasks each day | 2 |
| δ | Number of facemasks need of each medical observation case each day | Assuming that each medical observation case would use two facemasks each day | 2 |
| ε | Number of facemasks need of each general population each day | Assuming that each general population would use one facemask each day | 1 |
| Pg.h(d) | Percentage of population in Hubei province using facemasks on day d | We assume the percentage of population using facemasks as following: Between 21 Jan 2020 and 23 Jan 2020: 40% (Last working day before Spring festival holiday on 23 Jan 2020) Between 24 Jan 2020 and 9 Feb 2020: 20% (Spring festival holiday ended on 9 Feb 2020 but general people in Hubei province were required to home quarantine) Between 10 Feb 2020 and 12 Mar 2020: 40% (China announced that the peak of COVID-19 ended on 12 Mar 2020) Between 13 Mar 2020 and 30 Apr 2020: 30% Between 1 May 2020 and 30 June 2020: 20% |
40% (0<d ≤ 3) 20% (3<d ≤ 20) 40% (20<d ≤ 52) 30% (52<d ≤ 101) 20% (101<d ≤ 162) |
| Pg.o(d) | Percentage of population in other regions of mainland China using facemasks on day d | We assume the percentage of population using facemasks as following: Between 21 Jan 2020 and 23 Jan 2020: 40% (Last working day before Spring festival holiday on 23 Jan 2020) Between 24 Jan 2020 and 9 Feb 2020: 20% (Spring festival holiday ended on 9 Feb 2020) Between 10 Feb 2020 and 12 Mar 2020: 40% (China announced that the peak of COVID-19 ended on 12 Mar 2020) Between 13 Mar 2020 and 31 Mar 2020: 30% Between 1 Apr 2020 and 30 Apr 2020: 20% Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020: 10% Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020: 5% |
40% (0<d ≤ 3) 20% (3<d ≤ 20) 40% (20<d ≤ 52) 30% (52<d ≤ 71) 20% (71<d ≤ 101) 10% (101<d ≤ 132) 5% (132<d ≤ 162) |
| Fp.N(d) | Number of N95 facemasks produced in China on day d |
Estimation based on information from MIIT Between 21 Jan 2020 and 24 Jan 2020: 600,000 Between 25 Jan 2020 and 1 Feb 2020: 107,000 Between 2 Feb 2020 and 10 Feb 2020: 417,500 Between 11 Feb 2020 and 21 Feb 2020: 728,000 Between 22 Feb 2020 and 28 Feb 2020: 919,000 Between 29 Feb 2020 and 30 Jun 2020: 1660,000 |
600,000 (0<d ≤ 4) 107,000 (4<d ≤ 12) 417,500 (12<d ≤ 21) 728,000 (21<d ≤ 32) 919,000 (32<d ≤ 39) 1660,000 (39<d ≤ 162) |
| Fp(d) | Number of total facemasks produced in China on day d |
Estimation based on information from MIIT Between 21 Jan 2019 and 24 Jan 2020: 20,000,000 Between 25 Jan 2020 and 2 Feb 2020: 8000,000 Between 3 Feb 2020 and 10 Feb 2020: 12,000,000 Between 11 Feb 2020 and 16 Feb 2020: 18,800,000 Between 17 Feb 2020 and 21 Feb 2020: 36,85,000 Between 22 Feb 2020 and 24 Feb 2020: 54,770,000 Between 25 Feb 2020 and 28 Feb 2020: 76,190,000 Between 29 Feb 2020 and 30 Jun 2020: 116,000,000 |
20,000,000 (0<d ≤ 4) 8000,000 (4<d ≤ 13) 12,000,000 (13<d ≤ 21) 18,800,000 (21<d ≤ 27) 36,785,000 (27<d ≤ 32) 54,770,000 (32<d ≤ 35) 76,190,000 (35<d ≤ 39) 116,000,000 (39<d ≤ 162) |
| Fi(d) | Number of total facemasks imported to China on day d |
Estimation based on information from MIIT and GAC Between 24 Jan 2020 and 29 Jan 2020: 6000,000 30 Jan 2020: 20,000,000 Between 31 Jan 2020 and 11 Feb 2020: 56,166,667 Between 12 Feb 2020 and 24 Feb 2020: 83,384,615 Between 25 Feb 2020 and 29 Feb 2020: 40,000,000 Between 1 Mar 2020 and 5 Mar 2020: 20,000,000 Between 6 Mar 2020 and 10 Mar 2020: 10,000,000 Between 11 Mar 2020 and 15 Mar 2020: 5000,000 Between 16 Mar 2020 and 20 Mar 2020: 2500,000 Between 21 Mar 2020 and 30 Jun 2020: 0 |
6000,000 (4 ≤ d ≤ 9) 20,000,000 (d = 10) 56,166,667 (10<d ≤ 22) 83,384,615 (22<d ≤ 35) 40,000,000 (35<d ≤ 40) 20,000,000 (40<d ≤ 45) 10,000,000 (45<d ≤ 50) 5000,000 (50<d ≤ 55) 2500,000 (55<d ≤ 60) 0 (60<d ≤ 162) |
| Fi.N(d) | Number of N95 facemasks imported to China on day d |
Assuming that 10% of import facemasks were N95 facemasks Fi.N(d)=10% × Fi(d) Between 24 Jan 2020 and 29 Jan 2020: 600,000 30 Jan 2020: 2000,000 Between 31 Jan 2020 and 11 Feb 2020: 5616,667 Between 12 Feb 2020 and 24 Feb 2020: 8338,462 Between 25 Feb 2020 and 29 Feb 2020: 4000,000 Between 1 Mar 2020 and 5 Mar 2020: 2000,000 Between 6 Mar 2020 and 10 Mar 2020: 1000,000 Between 11 Mar 2020 and 15 Mar 2020: 500,000 Between 16 Mar 2020 and 20 Mar 2020: 250,000 Between 21 Mar 2020 and 30 Jun 2020: 0 |
600,000 (4 ≤ d ≤ 9) 2000,000 (d = 10) 5616,667 (10<d ≤ 22) 8338,462 (22<d ≤ 35) 4000,000 (35<d ≤ 40) 2000,000 (40<d ≤ 45) 1000,000 (45<d ≤ 50) 500,000 (50<d ≤ 55) 250,000 (55<d ≤ 60) 0 (60<d ≤ 162) |
| Fa(0) | Number of facemasks available on 20 Jan 2020 | Facemask storage was estimated to be seven times the daily consumption in hospitals. We assume that 70% of the facemask storage in the whole of China would be supplied to the hospital system; thus, Fa(0) = 7 × (α1(0) × θ × Nh.h+ α2(0) × θ × Nh.o)/ 70% = 137,763,640 / 70% =196,805,200 | 196,805,200 |
| Fa.N(0) | Number of N95 facemasks available on 20 Jan 2020 | Assuming 10% of Number of facemasks available were N95 facemasks Fa.N(0)=10% × Fa(0)=19,680,520 |
19,680,520 |