Table 3:

Relative risk¹ of incident diabetes² over 10 years of follow-up associated with self-reported and/or accelerometer-measured physical activity, adjusted for covariates, stratified by sex³

	Men		Women
	Model 14	Model 25	Model 14	Model 25
	RR (95% CI)3	RR (95% CI) 3	RR (95% CI) 3	RR (95% CI) 3
Exposure Variable(s)6
MVPA-SR (EU)	Model 1a	Model 2a	Model 1a	Model 2a
T1	Ref	Ref	Ref	Ref
T2	1.24 (0.69–2.23)	1.07 (0.74–1.55)	0.88 (0.57–1.36)	0.94 (0.69–1.29)
T3	0.81 (0.41–1.60)	0.82 (0.56–1.21)	0.63 (0.38–1.07)	0.93 (0.65–1.33)
p for trend	0.55	0.33	0.09	0.67
MVPA-Acc (mins/wk, cts>2020)	Model 1b	Model 2b	Model 1b	Model 2b
T1	Ref	Ref	Ref	Ref
T2	0.44 (0.24–0.81)	0.63 (0.44–0.90)	0.52 (0.32–0.86)	0.71 (0.52–0.97)
T3	0.33 (0.17–0.67)	0.52 (0.35–0.78)	0.61 (0.34–1.08)	0.71 (0.48–1.05)
p for trend	0.0007	0.0008	0.05	0.05
Both PA Measures	Model 1c	Model 2c	Model 1c	Model 2c
MVPA-SR
T1	Ref	Ref	Ref	Ref
T2	1.31 (0.74–2.30)	1.13 (0.78–1.64)	0.94 (0.60–1.47)	0.97 (0.70–1.33)
T3	0.96 (0.50–1.84)	0.90 (0.62–1.33)	0.71 (0.41–1.26)	1.04 (0.72–1.50)
p for trend	0.95	0.67	0.25	0.92
MVPA-Acc
T1	Ref	Ref	Ref	Ref
T2	0.45 (0.24–0.83)	0.63 (0.44–0.91)	0.55 (0.33–0.90)	0.71 (0.52–0.97)
T3	0.33 (0.17–0.65)	0.55 (0.35–0.79)	0.67 (0.37–1.22)	0.70 (0.47–1.06)
p for trend	0.0006	0.001	0.12	0.05

^1.Relative risk estimated from modified Poisson regression

^2.Diabetes defined as fasting glucose≥7 mmol/l, 2 hour glucose tolerance test ≥ 11.1 mmol/l or HbA_1c≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol IFCC (N=59 men, 88 women)

^3.Based on those whose diabetes status at Years 25 or 30 could be ascertained (N=2000)

^4.Adjusted for race, age, education, and Year 20 fasting glucose

^5.Additionally adjusted for BMI

^6.Three different PA exposure variables examined for each model: a) MVPA-SR only; b) MVPA-Acc only; and c) both MVPA-SR and MVPA-Acc, adjusted for each other