Table 1. Summary of predictions from our study.

Model	Area	Control time	Epidemic peak					Epidemic size
			New daily infections			Cumulative active infections
			Time	Number		Time	Number
SEIR	China	23-Jan	7-Feb	4,169 (95% CI: 3,615, 4,919)		28-Feb	59,764 (95% CI: 51,979, 70,172)	122,122 (95% CI: 89,741, 156,794)
		5 days earlier	2-Feb	1,391		23-Feb	19,962	40,991
		5 days later	12-Feb	12,118		Mar	173,372	351,874
	Hubeia	23-Jan	5-Feb	3,623 (95% CI: 2,327, 4,119)		20-Feb	42,792 (95% CI: 30,149, 52,941)	59,578 (95% CI: 39,189, 66,591)
		5 days earlier	3-Feb	2,061		15-Feb	15,635	22,116
		5 days later	10-Feb	9,908		25-Feb	115,061	167,598
	Hubeib	23-Jan	8-Feb	4,526 (95% CI: 3,439, 5,614)		18-Feb	51,581 (95% CI: 39,874, 63,994)	73,180 (95% CI: 51,308, 85,839)
						11-Mar	47,144 (95% CI: 36,305, 58,484)
		5 days earlier	30-Jan	891		11-Feb	8,031	15,965
						6-Mar	7,067
		5 days later	9-Feb	11,814		21-Feb	106,293	166,930
						17-Mar	90,992
	Guangdong	23-Jan	2-Feb	208 (95% CI: 181, 233)		20-Feb	1,202 (95% CI: 1,042, 1,340)	1,511 (95% CI: 1,097, 1,948)
		5 days earlier	26-Jan	43		15-Feb	157	453
		5 days later	2-Feb	584		26-Feb	3,553	10,061
	Zhejiang	23-Jan	28-Jan	161 (95% CI: 138, 181)		20-Feb	1,172 (95% CI: 1,004, 1,314)	1,491 (95% CI: 1,066, 1,851)
		5 days earlier	23-Jan	21		14-Feb	157	453
		5 days later	2-Feb	484		25-Feb	3,522	10,061
LSTM	China	23-Jan	4-Feb	3,886				95,811

^a, assumes that Hubei province remains under quarantine; ^b, assumes that Hubei province has the quarantine eased.