Table 1.
Direction, magnitude and significance of the association with type 1 diabetes incidence for each environmental variable for the frequentist ecological EnWAS and Bayesian disease-mapping approach
| Variable | EnWAS | Disease mapping | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 95% CI | Adjusted p valuea | Mean | 95% CrI | |
| Minimum sunshine duration | 0.920 | 0.877, 0.966 | 0.001 | 0.973 | 0.854, 1.108 |
| Maximum sunshine duration | 0.938 | 0.888, 0.991 | 0.023 | 0.963 | 0.835, 1.109 |
| Minimum temperature | 0.956 | 0.931, 0.982 | 0.001 | 0.959 | 0.913, 1.008 |
| Maximum temperature | 0.959 | 0.946, 0.972 | <0.001 | 0.985 | 0.941, 1.031 |
| Yearly ultraviolet radiation | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | <0.001 | 1.000 | 0.999, 1.000 |
| Land cover | |||||
| Green space | 1.000 | 0.999, 1.002 | 0.487 | 1.001 | 0.998, 1.003 |
| Blue space | 1.001 | 0.998, 1.003 | 0.636 | 0.998 | 0.994, 1.003 |
| Built-up space | 0.997 | 0.997, 0.998 | <0.001 | 0.999 | 0.998, 1.000 |
| Intense agriculture | 1.003 | 1.002, 1.003 | <0.001 | 1.001 | 1.000, 1.002 |
| ANGSt 1b | 0.996 | 0.995, 0.998 | <0.001 | 0.999 | 0.996, 1.001 |
| ANGSt 2b | 0.998 | 0.997, 0.998 | <0.001 | 0.999 | 0.998, 1.000 |
| ANGSt 3b | 0.999 | 0.999, 1.000 | <0.001 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.001 |
| ANGSt 4b | 0.999 | 0.999, 1.000 | 0.007 | 1.001 | 1.000, 1.002 |
| Rural status, % | 1.001 | 1.001, 1.002 | <0.001 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.001 |
| Urban status, % | 0.999 | 0.998, 0.999 | <0.001 | 1.000 | 0.999, 1.000 |
| Aggregate radon potential classc | 1.049 | 1.031, 1.067 | <0.001 | 1.047 | 1.018, 1.078 |
| Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) | 0.939 | 0.925, 0.954 | <0.001 | 0.972 | 0.942, 1.005 |
| Particulate matter (PM10)c | 0.958 | 0.949, 0.968 | <0.001 | 0.977 | 0.958, 0.997 |
| Nitrogen dioxidec | 0.990 | 0.988, 0.993 | <0.001 | 0.994 | 0.990, 0.998 |
| Nitrogen oxidesc | 0.996 | 0.995, 0.997 | <0.001 | 0.997 | 0.996, 0.999 |
| Carbon monoxidec | 0.930 | 0.914, 0.946 | <0.001 | 0.968 | 0.939, 0.999 |
| Sulphur dioxide | 1.006 | 0.997, 1.015 | 0.198 | 1.012 | 0.995, 1.030 |
| Ozone | 0.998 | 0.995, 1.001 | 0.179 | 0.999 | 0.991, 1.008 |
| Benzene | 0.989 | 0.969, 1.008 | 0.261 | 1.010 | 0.984, 1.036 |
| PM10 (EU-LUR model) | 0.976 | 0.970, 0.983 | <0.001 | 0.989 | 0.977, 1.002 |
| Nitrogen dioxide (EU-LUR model)c | 0.992 | 0.990, 0.993 | <0.001 | 0.994 | 0.991, 0.997 |
| Leadc | 0.999 | 0.999, 0.999 | <0.001 | 0.999 | 0.999, 0.999 |
| Cadmium | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.096 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Arsenic | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.165 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Nitrates in drinking water | 0.997 | 0.996, 0.999 | 0.002 | 1.000 | 0.997, 1.003 |
| Fungicides | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.003 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Herbicides and desiccants | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.055 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Growth regulators | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.110 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Insecticides, nemacides and acaracides | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.048 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Molluscicides and repellents | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.018 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Other pesticides | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.020 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Total pesticides | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 | 0.014 | 1.000 | 1.000, 1.000 |
| Outdoor light at nightc | 0.996 | 0.995, 0.996 | <0.001 | 0.997 | 0.995, 0.998 |
| Population density (2000)c | 0.964 | 0.957, 0.972 | <0.001 | 0.976 | 0.963, 0.991 |
| Population density (2001)c | 0.965 | 0.957, 0.972 | <0.001 | 0.977 | 0.963, 0.991 |
| Overcrowdingc | 0.959 | 0.949, 0.968 | <0.001 | 0.976 | 0.958, 0.994 |
| IMD | 0.998 | 0.996, 1.000 | 0.024 | 0.998 | 0.994, 1.001 |
| Living environment domainc | 0.994 | 0.992, 0.995 | <0.001 | 0.994 | 0.991, 0.997 |
| Housing domain | 0.993 | 0.991, 0.995 | <0.001 | 0.996 | 0.992, 1.001 |
| Education domain | 1.003 | 1.001, 1.005 | 0.002 | 1.002 | 0.999, 1.005 |
| Employment domain | 1.012 | 0.996, 1.028 | 0.130 | 0.994 | 0.962, 1.027 |
| Income domain | 0.975 | 0.961, 0.989 | 0.001 | 0.978 | 0.953, 1.004 |
| Crime domain | 0.924 | 0.896, 0.952 | <0.001 | 0.965 | 0.920, 1.013 |
| Health domain | 1.013 | 0.989, 1.038 | 0.284 | 0.997 | 0.950, 1.048 |
| Tobacco expenditure | 0.995 | 0.982, 1.009 | 0.503 | 0.991 | 0.964, 1.020 |
| White ethnicityc | 1.008 | 1.006, 1.009 | <0.001 | 1.005 | 1.002, 1.008 |
| Black ethnicityc | 0.982 | 0.978, 0.986 | <0.001 | 0.987 | 0.980, 0.994 |
| Asian ethnicityc | 0.989 | 0.986, 0.992 | <0.001 | 0.995 | 0.990, 1.000 |
ap < 0.0009 to be significant after Bonferroni correction for multiple testing
bANGSt criteria are defined in the Methods section
cVariable significantly associated with type 1 diabetes across both approaches
EU-LUR, European land use regression air pollution model