Table 1.
Joinpoint analysis of life expectancy trends--US, census divisions, and states
| Trends in last two segments (years, APC [95% CI) | Change in slope (% change, 95% CI) |
AAPCǂ (2010–16) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penultimate APCǂ | Last APCǂ | |||||
| UNITED STATES | 2003–2011 | 0.27 (0.21 to 0.34) | 2011–2016 | 0.00 (−0.12 to 0.12) | −0.27 (−0.40 to −0.14) | 0.05 (−0.05 to 0.14) |
| Div 1: New England | 1977–2012 | 0.22 (0.22 to 0.23) | 2012–2016 | −0.09 (−0.32 to 0.14) | −0.32 (−0.54 to −0.10) | 0.01 (−0.14 to 0.16) |
| Connecticut | 2000–2010 | 0.31 (0.26 to 0.36) | 2010–2016 | 0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14) | −0.27 (−0.38 to −0.16) | 0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14) |
| Maine | 1978–2011 | 0.19 (0.18 to 0.20) | 2011–2016 | −0.16 (−0.34 to 0.02) | −0.35 (−0.52 to −0.17) | −0.10 (−0.25 to 0.04) |
| Massachusetts | 1977–2013 | 0.23 (0.22 to 0.24) | 2013–2016 | −0.17 (−0.59 to 0.24) | −0.40 (−0.81 to 0.00) | 0.03 (−0.17 to 0.23) |
| New Hampshire | 1978–2012 | 0.22 (0.21 to 0.23) | 2012–2016 | −0.41 (−0.66 to −0.15) | −0.63 (−0.88 to −0.38) | −0.20 (−0.36 to −0.03) |
| Rhode Island | 1979–2012 | 0.20 (0.19 to 0.21) | 2012–2016 | −0.06 (−0.36 to 0.24) | −0.26 (−0.55 to 0.03) | 0.03 (−0.16 to 0.22) |
| Vermont | 1977–2009 | 0.24 (0.23 to 0.25) | 2009–2016 | −0.05 (−0.15 to 0.06) | −0.28 (−0.39 to −0.18) | −0.05 (−0.15 to 0.06) |
| Div 2: Mid-Atlantic | 1988–2010 | 0.31 (0.29 to 0.32) | 2010–2016 | 0.10 (−0.01 to 0.21) | −0.21 (−0.31 to −0.10) | 0.10 (−0.01 to 0.21) |
| New Jersey | 1988–2012 | 0.30 (0.28 to 0.32) | 2012–2016 | 0.05 (−0.16 to 0.25) | −0.25 (−0.45 to −0.05) | 0.13 (0.00 to 0.26) |
| New York | 1998–2012 | 0.31 (0.28 to 0.34) | 2012–2016 | 0.10 (−0.07 to 0.27) | −0.21 (−0.38 to −0.05) | 0.17 (0.06 to 0.28) |
| Pennsylvania | 1981–2014 | 0.19 (0.19 to 0.20) | 2014–2016 | −0.41 (−1.03 to 0.21) | −0.60 (−1.21 to 0.00) | −0.01 (−0.21 to 0.19) |
| Div 3: East North Central | 1980–2012 | 0.19 (0.18 to 0.20) | 2012–2016 | −0.10 (−0.28 to 0.08) | −0.29 (−0.46 to −0.11) | 0.00 (−0.12 to 0.11) |
| Illinois | 1994–2012 | 0.29 (0.26 to 0.31) | 2012–2016 | −0.03 (−0.23 to 0.18) | −0.31 (−0.51 to −0.11) | 0.08 (−0.05 to 0.21) |
| Indiana | 1981–2011 | 0.14 (0.13 to 0.15) | 2011–2016 | −0.10 (−0.24 to 0.05) | −0.24 (−0.38 to −0.10) | −0.06 (−0.18 to 0.06) |
| Michigan | 1978–2011 | 0.20 (0.19 to 0.20) | 2011–2016 | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.06) | −0.25 (−0.36 to −0.14) | −0.01 (−0.10 to 0.08) |
| Ohio | 1983–2012 | 0.15 (0.14 to 0.16) | 2012–2016 | −0.22 (−0.41 to −0.04) | −0.37 (−0.55 to −0.19) | −0.10 (−0.22 to 0.02) |
| Wisconsin | 2002–2009 | 0.25 (0.17 to 0.34) | 2009–2016 | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.04) | −0.28 (−0.39 to −0.18) | −0.03 (−0.09 to 0.04) |
| Div 4: West North Central | 2001–2010 | 0.20 (0.15 to 0.25) | 2010–2016 | −0.02 (−0.09 to 0.06) | −0.21 (−0.30 to −0.13) | −0.02 (−0.09 to 0.06) |
| Iowa | 1980–2010 | 0.16 (0.15 to 0.16) | 2010–2016 | −0.04 (−0.13 to 0.05) | −0.20 (−0.28 to −0.11) | −0.04 (−0.13 to 0.05) |
| Kansas | 2001–2011 | 0.16 (0.12 to 0.20) | 2011–2016 | −0.03 (−0.14 to 0.08) | −0.19 (−0.30 to −0.08) | 0.00 (−0.08 to 0.09) |
| Minnesota | 2000–2009 | 0.26 (0.20 to 0.32) | 2009–2016 | 0.00 (−0.07 to 0.08) | −0.26 (−0.35 to −0.16) | 0.00 (−0.07 to 0.08) |
| Missouri | 1999–2012 | 0.18 (0.16 to 0.21) | 2012–2016 | −0.11 (−0.28 to 0.06) | −0.29 (−0.46 to −0.12) | −0.01 (−0.12 to 0.10) |
| Nebraska | 1979–2011 | 0.17 (0.16 to 0.18) | 2011–2016 | −0.04 (−0.18 to 0.11) | −0.20 (−0.34 to −0.06) | 0.00 (−0.12 to 0.12) |
| North Dakota | 2002–2005 | 0.39 (−0.69 to 1.48) | 2005–2016 | 0.01 (−0.04 to 0.06) | −0.37 (−1.43 to 0.68) | 0.01 (−0.04 to 0.06) |
| South Dakota | 1982–2013 | 0.16 (0.15 to 0.18) | 2013–2016 | −0.32 (−0.80 to 0.16) | −0.48 (−0.95 to −0.01) | −0.08 (−0.31 to 0.16) |
| Div 5: South Atlantic | 2003–2012 | 0.30 (0.23 to 0.37) | 2012–2016 | −0.06 (−0.28 to 0.16) | −0.36 (−0.59 to −0.13) | 0.06 (−0.09 to 0.20) |
| Delaware | 1969–1977 | 0.60 (0.46 to 0.73) | 1977–2016 | 0.21 (0.20 to 0.22) | −0.39 (−0.52 to −0.25) | 0.21 (0.20 to 0.22) |
| Florida | 2005–2013 | 0.33 (0.22 to 0.44) | 2013–2016 | −0.14 (−0.55 to 0.26) | −0.47 (−0.88 to −0.06) | 0.09 (−0.11 to 0.30) |
| Georgia | 2003–2012 | 0.31 (0.22 to 0.40) | 2012–2016 | −0.12 (−0.39 to 0.16) | −0.42 (−0.71 to −0.14) | 0.02 (−0.16 to 0.21) |
| Maryland | 2001–2012 | 0.36 (0.31 to 0.41) | 2012–2016 | −0.11 (−0.33 to 0.12) | −0.47 (−0.69 to −0.24) | 0.05 (−0.10 to 0.20) |
| North Carolina | 2000–2012 | 0.26 (0.22 to 0.30) | 2012–2016 | −0.09 (−0.30 to 0.12) | −0.35 (−0.56 to −0.14) | 0.02 (−0.11 to 0.16) |
| South Carolina | 1972–1979 | 0.79 (0.61 to 0.96) | 1979–2016 | 0.20 (0.19 to 0.21) | −0.59 (−0.76 to −0.41) | 0.20 (0.19 to 0.21) |
| Virginia | 1969–1979 | 0.53 (0.47 to 0.60) | 1979–2016 | 0.22 (0.21 to 0.23) | −0.31 (−0.37 to −0.25) | 0.22 (0.21 to 0.23) |
| West Virginia | 1996–2014 | 0.05 (0.03 to 0.06) | 2014–2016 | −0.37 (−1.07 to 0.35) | −0.41 (−1.11 to 0.28) | −0.09 (−0.32 to 0.14) |
| Div 6: East South Central | 2005–2011 | 0.20 (0.07 to 0.33) | 2011–2016 | −0.10 (−0.23 to 0.03) | −0.31 (−0.49 to −0.13) | −0.05 (−0.16 to 0.06) |
| Alabama | 1969–1982 | 0.49 (0.45 to 0.53) | 1982–2016 | 0.09 (0.09 to 0.10) | −0.39 (−0.43 to −0.35) | 0.09 (0.09 to 0.10) |
| Kentucky | 1992–2013 | 0.09 (0.08 to 0.11) | 2013–2016 | −0.38 (−0.73 to −0.03) | −0.47 (−0.81 to −0.13) | −0.14 (−0.31 to 0.03) |
| Mississippi | 2005–2010 | 0.31 (0.06 to 0.55) | 2010–2016 | −0.06 (−0.18 to 0.06) | −0.36 (−0.63 to −0.10) | −0.06 (−0.18 to 0.06) |
| Tennessee | 2003–2011 | 0.23 (0.14 to 0.32) | 2011–2016 | −0.10 (−0.26 to 0.06) | −0.33 (−0.51 to −0.16) | −0.05 (−0.17 to 0.08) |
| Div 7: West South Central | 2003–2011 | 0.25 (0.19 to 0.31) | 2011–2016 | 0.03 (−0.08 to 0.14) | −0.22 (−0.34 to −0.10) | 0.07 (−0.02 to 0.15) |
| Arkansas | 1973–1978 | 0.68 (0.44 to 0.92) | 1978–2016 | 0.09 (0.08 to 0.10) | −0.58 (−0.82 to −0.35) | 0.09 (0.08 to 0.10) |
| Louisiana | 2005–2010 | 0.42 (0.18 to 0.66) | 2010–2016 | 0.02 (−0.10 to 0.14) | −0.40 (−0.66 to −0.14) | 0.02 (−0.10 to 0.14) |
| Oklahoma | 1987–1995 | −0.03 (−0.10 to 0.05) | 1995–2016 | 0.06 (0.05 to 0.07) | 0.09 (0.01 to 0.16) | 0.06 (0.05 to 0.07) |
| Texas | 1972–1977 | 0.65 (0.42 to 0.88) | 1977–2016 | 0.19 (0.19 to 0.20) | −0.45 (−0.67 to −0.23) | 0.19 (0.19 to 0.20) |
| Div 8: Mountain | 2005–2010 | 0.31 (0.15 to 0.48) | 2010–2016 | 0.01 (−0.07 to 0.10) | −0.30 (−0.48 to −0.12) | 0.01 (−0.07 to 0.10) |
| Arizona | 2006–2009 | 0.60 (−0.22 to 1.42) | 2009–2016 | 0.05 (−0.05 to 0.16) | −0.55 (−1.34 to 0.25) | 0.05 (−0.05 to 0.16) |
| Colorado | 2002–2012 | 0.24 (0.19 to 0.29) | 2012–2016 | −0.07 (−0.28 to 0.13) | −0.31 (−0.52 to −0.11) | 0.03 (−0.10 to 0.16) |
| Idaho | 1991–2010 | 0.16 (0.14 to 0.17) | 2010–2016 | −0.02 (−0.11 to 0.08) | −0.17 (−0.27 to −0.08) | −0.02 (−0.11 to 0.08) |
| Montana | 1977–1988 | 0.34 (0.27 to 0.41) | 1988–2016 | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13) | −0.22 (−0.29 to −0.15) | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13) |
| Nevada | 2005–2010 | 0.40 (0.20 to 0.61) | 2010–2016 | 0.06 (−0.05 to 0.16) | −0.34 (−0.56 to −0.12) | 0.06 (−0.04 to 0.16) |
| New Mexico | 1983–2013 | 0.13 (0.12 to 0.15) | 2013–2016 | −0.27 (−0.70 to 0.16) | −0.40 (−0.82 to 0.02) | −0.07 (−0.28 to 0.14) |
| Utah | 2004–2009 | 0.28 (0.10 to 0.45) | 2009–2016 | −0.07 (−0.14 to 0.00) | −0.34 (−0.53 to −0.16) | −0.07 (−0.13 to 0.00) |
| Wyoming | 1971–1984 | 0.57 (0.49 to 0.64) | 1984–2016 | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.14) | −0.44 (−0.51 to −0.37) | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.14) |
| Div 9: Pacific | 1988–2013 | 0.27 (0.26 to 0.28) | 2013–2016 | 0.01 (−0.24 to 0.26) | −0.26 (−0.51 to −0.02) | 0.14 (0.02 to 0.26) |
| Alaska | 1984–2010 | 0.21 (0.18 to 0.23) | 2010–2016 | −0.04 (−0.27 to 0.18) | −0.25 (−0.47 to −0.03) | −0.04 (−0.27 to 0.18) |
| California | 1988–2014 | 0.30 (0.29 to 0.31) | 2014–2016 | −0.12 (−0.70 to 0.45) | −0.42 (−0.98 to 0.14) | 0.16 (−0.03 to 0.34) |
| Hawaii | 1977–1997 | 0.14 (0.12 to 0.16) | 1997–2016 | 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.07) | 0.18 (0.16 to 0.20) |
| Oregon | 1971–1979 | 0.46 (0.35 to 0.58) | 1979–2016 | 0.17 (0.16 to 0.18) | −0.29 (−0.40 to −0.18) | 0.17 (0.16 to 0.18) |
| Washington | 1980–2013 | 0.19 (0.19 to 0.20) | 2013–2016 | −0.03 (−0.32 to 0.26) | −0.22 (−0.51 to 0.06) | 0.08 (−0.06 to 0.22) |
ǂ
Table presents slopes for the two most recent linear trends in life expectancy during 1959–2016. For the penultimate and most recent time periods, the table presents the annual percent change (APC), the years marking the beginning and end of each time period, and the degree to which the slope changed between the two comparison periods. The table also presents the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2010–2016. The AAPC over any fixed interval is calculated using a weighted average of the slope coefficients of the underlying joinpoint regression line with weights equal to the length of each segment over the interval. The final step of the calculation transforms the weighted average of slope coefficients to an annual percent change. Life expectancy data obtained from the US Mortality Database.