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. 2020 Apr 9;18:162. doi: 10.1186/s12967-020-02313-z

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 3 — Distribution of R&D projects, by probability of success and size of the market. In each panel, the probability of success (POS) is shown on the x axis and the logarithm of potential sales (yearly average computed in 2002–2016) on the y axis. A contour plot and a three-dimensional view of the same distribution are shown. In the contour plot we highlight the top 10 ATC3 classes by the focal metric being shown on the vertical axis. These are listed besides the contour plots. a The vertical axis shows the percentage distribution of research and development (R&D) projects by POS and sales level. The distribution of R&D efforts is concentrated in the upper left hand corner of the plot (indicating high sales and low POS). b The vertical axis shows the share variation between 2002–2009 and 2010–2017, again as a function of POS and sales. Positive values (peaks in the plot) represent areas in which the research efforts have increased from 2002–2009 to 2010–2017, whereas negative values (holes in the plot) correspond to a reduction of research intensity