Table 1.
ARIMA model comparison.
| Model | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | AIC | AICc | BIC | ME | RMSE | MAE | MPE | MAPE | MASE | ACF1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA(1,2,0)10 Registered cases | 0.3694 | – | – | 680.41 | 680.7 | 683.98 | 17.84 | 514.74 | 324.46 | 4.26 | 6.25 | 0.1403 | 0.0113 |
| s.e. | 0.1575 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ARIMA(3,2,0)10 Recovered cases | −1.14 | −0.74 | −0.48 | 597.18 | 598.21 | 604.32 | 80.80 | 186.85 | 112.27 | 10.57 | 15.60 | 0.3293 | −0.081 |
| s.e. | 0.1296 | 0.1826 | 0.1357 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
∗ar1,ar2,….arn are model coefficients; s.e.: standard errors; AIC: Akaike information criteria; AICc: Second order Akaike information criteria; BIC: Bayesian Information criterion; ME: Margin of error; RMSE: Root mean square error of fitted model; MAE: Mean absolute error; MPE: Mean posterior estimate; MAPE: Median absolute prediction error; MASE: Mean absolute scaled error; ACF: Aberrant crypt foci.