Table 2.
Overview of prediction models for late stage age‐related macular degeneration (AMD), using combinations of risk factor categories (phenotypic, demographic, environmental, genetic and molecular) as developed in prospective cohort studies
| References | Follow‐up (years) | Imaging modality | Definition progression to GA | Definition progression to nAMD | Phenotypic (P) | Demographic (D) | Environmental (E) | Genetic (G) | Molecular (M) | AUC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buitendijk (2013)239 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | – | – | – | 0.60 |
| Sardell (2016)90 | 3 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | – | – | – | 0.64 |
| Ding (2017)229 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | – | D | E | – | – | 0.62 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | – | D | E | – | – | 0.63 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | E | – | – | 0.67 |
| Sardell (2016)90 | 3 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | – | G | – | 0.67 |
| Buitendijk (2013) 239 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | – | G | – | 0.82 |
| Ding (2017)229 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | – | D | E | G | – | 0.75 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | D | E | G | – | 0.80 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | – | D | E | G | – | 0.86 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | – | – | – | G | – | 0.79 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | – | – | – | G | – | 0.84 |
| Ding (2017)229 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | – | – | – | – | 0.88 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | – | – | – | – | 0.89 |
| Ding (2017)229 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | D | E | – | – | 0.89 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | P | D | E | – | – | 0.90 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | D | E | – | – | 0.90 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | P | – | – | G | – | 0.91 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | – | – | G | – | 0.96 |
| Klein (2011)230 | 5 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | D | E | G | – | 0.87 |
| Buitendijk (2013)232 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | P | D | E | G | – | 0.88 |
| Ding (2017)229 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | D | E | G | – | 0.89 |
| Yu (2012)92 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | P | D | E | G | – | 0.90 |
| Seddon (2015)91 | 10 | CFP | Central GA, non‐central GA | Serous PED, subretinal fibrous tissue, hemorrhage, CNV membrane | P | D | E | G | – | 0.91 |
| Perlee (2013)231 | 12 | CFP | Central GA | Retinal PED, haemorrhage, subretinal fibrous tissue | P | D | E | G | – | 0.96 |
Phenotypic: AMD classifications based on drusen and pigment abnormalities; Demographic: age and sex; Environmental: smoking, BMI and in some studies level of education; Genetic: rs570618 or rs1061170 in CFH, rs3750846 or rs10490924 in ARMS2/HTRA1, and in some studies additional AMD variants; Molecular: there are currently no prospective studies using molecular risk factors in their prediction models.
AMD, age‐related macular degeneration; AUC, area under curve; CFP, colour fundus photography; CNV, choroid neovascularisation; D, demographic predictors; E, environmental predictors; G, genetic predictors; GA, Geographic Atrophy; M, molecular predictors; nAMD, neovascular age‐related macular degeneration; P, phenotypic predictors; PED, pigment epithelium detachment.