Table 3.

Predicted immediate and long-term PCa outcomes per 1000 men with PSA between 4.0 and 10.0 ng/mL by screening age and biopsy strategy

Screening age, y	Biopsy strategy*	Biopsies done, n	Biopsies,%Δ†	PCa diagnoses, n		Over-diagnoses, n	Overdiagnoses, %Δ†	Deaths, n		Lives saved, n	Lives saved,%Δ†	Overdiagnoses per life saved
				Low grade	High grade			PCa	Other
55	No patients	0	100.0	0	0	0	100.0	88	912	0	100.0	—
	T2:ERG >5	491	50.9	156	112	43	36.4	57	943	31	36.0	1.4
	PCA3 >35	261	73.9	93	75	27	60.6	71	929	17	64.9	1.6
	MiPS >30%	569	43.1	188	151	53	21.2	49	951	39	19.6	1.4
	MiPShg >10%	732	26.8	203	160	57	15.0	45	955	42	13.1	1.4
	IDEAL	421	57.9	248	173	67	0.2	39	961	49	0.1	1.4
	IDEALhg	173	82.7	0	173	25	62.9	60	940	28	42.6	0.9
	All patients	1000	0.0	248	173	67	0.0	39	961	49	0.0	1.4
65	No patients	0	100.0	0	0	0	100.0	42	958	0	100.0	—
	T2:ERG >5	486	51.4	144	57	77	35.8	30	970	12	38.5	6.3
	PCA3 >35	338	66.2	105	59	63	48.0	31	969	11	46.6	5.8
	MiPS >30%	669	33.1	184	87	104	14.0	24	976	18	11.4	5.8
	MiPShg >10%	788	21.2	197	88	110	8.8	23	977	19	7.3	5.9
	IDEAL	311	68.9	218	93	121	0.0	22	978	20	0.2	6.0
	IDEALhg	93	90.7	0	93	34	72.0	32	968	10	51.8	3.5
	All patients	1000	0.0	218	93	121	0.0	22	978	20	0.0	6.0

^*IDEAL = ideal biomarker with 100% sensitivity or specificity for any PCa; IDEALhg = ideal biomarker with 100% sensitivity or specificity for high-grade PCa; MiPS = Michigan Prostate Score for any PCa; MiPShg = Michigan Prostate Score for high-grade PCa; PCa = prostate cancer; PCA3 = prostate cancer antigen 3; PSA = prostate-specific antigen; T2:ERG = TMPRSS2:ERG gene fusion.

^†“%Δ” shows the percent reduction under each biopsy strategy relative to biopsying all patients.