Table 3. Estimated reproduction numbers (90% credible intervals) for the Wuhan outbreak conditioned on case data from the 25th of January, for scenarios with a pre-intervention SARS-like serial interval.
Stratified by initial exposure event size and duration.
| Transmission event size | Transmission event duration (days) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 28 | |
| 20 | - | 3.8 - 4 | 3.2 - 4 | 2.8 - 4 | 2.5 - 3.9 |
| 40 | - | 3.5 - 4 | 3.1 - 4 | 2.6 - 3.9 | 2.2 - 3.8 |
| 60 | 4 - 4 | 3.2 - 4 | 2.8 - 3.9 | 2.4 - 3.7 | 2 - 3.4 |
| 80 | 3.6 - 4 | 3.1 - 4 | 2.6 - 3.9 | 2.2 - 3.5 | 1.9 - 3.1 |
| 100 | 3.5 - 4 | 3 - 4 | 2.4 - 3.7 | 2.1 - 3.2 | 1.8 - 2.7 |
| 200 | 2.8 - 3.8 | 2.2 - 3.2 | 1.8 - 2.6 | 1.6 - 2.2 | 1.4 - 2 |
| 400 | 1.8 - 2.4 | 1.5 - 2 | 1.3 - 1.7 | 1.1 - 1.5 | 1 - 1.4 |