Table 2.
Relative performance of passive and active surveillance in the early detection of African Swine Fever (ASF) in wild boars, as resulting from a compartmental model. The results refer to the first year after the first disease outbreak.
| Wild Boar Pop. Size | Early Detection (Days 1–100) | Epidemic Phase (Days 101–365) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probability to Detect the Disease | Day of First Detection | Days between Detections | Probability to Detect the Disease | Day of First Detection | Days between Detections | |||||||
| Passive (ϕ a = 0.1) | Active | Passive (ϕ a = 0.1) | Active | Passive (ϕ a = 0.1) | Active | Passive (ϕ = 0.1) | Active | Passive (ϕ = 0.1) |
Active | Passive (ϕ = 0.1) |
Active | |
| 100 | 100% | 43% | 41 | 78 | 12 | 90 | 100% | 62% | 49 | 178 | 43 | 242 |
| 400 | 100% | 87% | 24 | 57 | 4 | 61 | 100% | 100% | 34 | 76 | 10 | 149 |
| 1000 | 100% | 99% | 15 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 100% | 100% | 31 | 54 | 3 | 58 |
a Probability to detect a carcass of a wild boar dead for ASF.