Table 1.
Estimated price tag to provide a package of essential medicines in low-income and middle-income countries under four sets of assumptions (scenarios) about levels of consumption
| Scenario 1 (Denmark) | Scenario 2 (KwaZulu-Natal) | Scenario 3 (Denmark + IMS) | Scenario 4 (KwaZulu-Natal + IMS) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full package of medicines | $151·9 billion | $77·4 billion | $134·1 billion | $97·3 billion | |
| Per capita per year in low-income and middle-income countries | $25·4 | $12·9 | $22·4 | $16·3 | |
| Medicines | |||||
| Antiretroviral for HIV or AIDS* (adult) | $4·9 billion | $4·9 billion | .. | ||
| For tuberculosis* | $0·4 billion | $0·4 billion | .. | ||
| For malaria* | $1·2 billion | $1·2 billion | .. | ||
| For diabetes* | $12·5 billion | $12·5 billion | .. | ||
| For cardiovascular conditions | $44·0 billion | $9·2 billion | .. | ||
| Antimicrobials | $15·6 billion | $15·5 billion | .. | ||
| For respiratory conditions (asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) | $11·7 billion | $4·9 billion | .. | ||
Data are US$. IMS=IMS Health.
*
No difference in the result from Scenarios 1 and 2 because all quantities are estimated by demand scenarios and so are unchanged.