Table 2.
Results of sensitivity analyses, altering input parameters
|
Scenario 1 (Denmark) |
Scenario 2 (KwaZulu-Natal) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower limit | Upper limit | Lower limit | Upper limit | ||
| Baseline | |||||
| Estimate | $151·9 billion | $151·9 billion | $77·4 billion | $77·4 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $25·4 | $25·4 | $12·9 | $12·9 | |
| Price | |||||
| Switch to lowest or highest IDPIG price* | $101·5 billion | $195·7 billion | $52·4 billion | $96·5 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $17·0 | $32·7 | $8·8 | $16·1 | |
| Change assumptions about mark-ups* | $151·5 billion | $157·5 billion | $77·2 billion | $80·2 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $25·3 | $26·3 | $12·9 | $13·4 | |
| Demand forecasts | |||||
| Use limits of confidence intervals provided by these models | $151·7 billion | $152·3 billion | $77·2 billion | $77·7 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $25·4 | $25·5 | $12·9 | $13·0 | |
| Prevalence data | |||||
| Use limits of confidence intervals for prevalence estimates | $148·2 billion | $155·7 billion | $75·4 billion | $79·3 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $24·8 | $26·0 | $12·6 | $13·3 | |
| Use 50% as lower bound of treatment coverage assumption | $143·9 billion | NA | $70·6 billion | NA | |
| Per capita per year | $24·0 | $24·0 | $11·8 | $11·8 | |
| Use limits of medicine coverage assumption | $150·1 billion | $152·9 billion | $75·6 billion | $78·1 billion | |
| Per capita per year | $25·1 | $25·6 | $12·6 | $13·0 | |
Data are US$. IDPIG=International Drug Price Indicator Guide. NA=not applicable.
*
For those medicines that had used IDPIG supplier median price for main scenarios.