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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Jul 1.
Published in final edited form as: Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2019 Nov 20;29(1):10–21. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-18-1123

Table 5:

Costs and effects (discounted at 5%) of per 1,000 simulated 40-year-olds of all personalised screening scenarios assuming a) perfect adherence and b) realistic adherence

a. Effects of personalised screening scenarios assuming perfect adherence
Screening Strategy FITs Colonoscopies Complications CRC Incidence CRC Mortality Life Yearsa Total QALYsa Total Costsab ICERab
No Screening 0 84 0.07 84 29 17,872 17,847 1,234,089
PS01 360 130 0.09 81 27 17,874 17,850 1,467,668 Dominated
PS02 515 141 0.10 81 27 17,875 17,851 1,471,312 Dominated
PS03 1,722 276 0.16 73 23 17,882 17,859 1,505,808 Dominated
PS04 2,554 324 0.18 71 22 17,883 17,860 1,513,829 Dominated
PS05 2,190 305 0.18 72 23 17,884 17,861 1,520,843 Dominated
PS06 3,322 368 0.20 70 22 17,885 17,863 1,542,584 Dominated
PS07 5,226 525 0.27 63 18 17,891 17,871 1,628,434 Dominated
PS08 5,920 562 0.28 63 18 17,893 17,873 1,656,571 Dominated
PS09 6,017 568 0.28 63 18 17,894 17,873 1,662,780 15,998
PS10 7,406 663 0.32 59 16 17,897 17,877 1,734,789 19,167
PS11 7,898 687 0.33 59 16 17,898 17,878 1,756,804 19,251
PS12 9,596 770 0.35 57 15 17,899 17,880 1,801,421 24,261
PS13 10,057 792 0.36 57 15 17,900 17,881 1,834,425 28,076
PS14 11,189 859 0.38 55 14 17,902 17,884 1,911,354 32,041
PS15 11,700 881 0.39 55 14 17,902 17,884 1,924,610 33,605
PS16 11,089 991 0.43 52 14 17,903 17,885 1,952,870 38,059
PS17 11,089 1,023 0.44 52 13 17,903 17,885 1,978,086 39,563
PS18 12,293 1,078 0.45 51 13 17,904 17,886 2,013,777 39,692
PS19 12,939 1,106 0.46 51 13 17,905 17,887 2,063,215 45,682
PS20 13,382 1,125 0.47 51 13 17,905 17,888 2,098,112 63,213
PS21 13,646 1,136 0.47 51 13 17,906 17,888 2,116,904 64,062
PS22 10,378 1,951 0.68 43 11 17,909 17,893 2,487,033 81,839
PS23 10,378 1,969 0.69 43 11 17,910 17,893 2,519,388 82,386
PS24 11,148 2,001 0.69 43 11 17,910 17,893 2,534,168 86,970
PS25 11,518 2,017 0.70 43 11 17,910 17,894 2,564,321 95,845
PS26 12,085 2,037 0.70 43 11 17,911 17,894 2,627,025 127,618
PS27 12,085 2,100 0.71 43 11 17,911 17,895 2,699,821 135,361
PS28 12,085 2,209 0.74 43 11 17,912 17,896 2,880,990 172,640
PS29 6,575 3,465 0.99 35 9 17,915 17,899 3,469,210 180,219
PS30 6,964 3,480 0.99 35 9 17,915 17,899 3,512,866 181,642
PS31 7,289 3,492 1.00 35 9 17,916 17,899 3,549,627 226,549
PS32 7,289 3,804 1.05 34 8 17,917 17,901 3,943,469 282,951
PS33 7,289 4,017 1.09 34 8 17,918 17,902 4,238,838 349,821
PS34 3,372 4,929 1.25 30 7 17,920 17,903 4,694,318 370,115
PS35 3,372 5,105 1.28 30 7 17,920 17,903 4,915,213 696,391
PS36 3,372 5,531 1.35 29 7 17,922 17,904 5,515,822 707,094
PS37 0 6,328 1.47 27 6 17,922 17,904 5,935,615 1,808,159
PS38 0 6,612 1.51 27 6 17,923 17,904 6,365,416 2,057,076
PS39 0 6,782 1.54 27 6 17,923 17,905 6,564,338 3,860,049
b. Effects of personalised screening scenarios assuming realistic adherence
Screening Strategy FITs Colonoscopies Complications CRC Incidence CRC Mortality Life Yearsa Total QALYsa Total Costsab ICERab
No Screening 0 84 0.07 84 29 17,872 17,847 1,234,089
PS01 203 107 0.08 82 28 17,873 17,848 1,473,736 Dominated
PS02 283 112 0.08 82 28 17,874 17,849 1,475,367 Dominated
PS03 908 168 0.11 79 26 17,877 17,853 1,521,883 Dominated
PS04 1,402 198 0.13 77 25 17,878 17,854 1,523,703 Dominated
PS05 1,101 180 0.12 78 25 17,878 17,854 1,529,310 Dominated
PS06 1,814 218 0.14 76 25 17,880 17,856 1,538,207 Dominated
PS07 2,783 282 0.17 73 23 17,882 17,859 1,623,617 Dominated
PS08 3,074 296 0.17 73 22 17,883 17,860 1,637,150 Dominated
PS09 3,134 299 0.18 73 22 17,883 17,861 1,640,166 Dominated
PS10 3,834 337 0.19 71 21 17,885 17,862 1,705,874 Dominated
PS11 4,042 345 0.19 71 21 17,885 17,863 1,716,293 Dominated
PS12 5,140 393 0.21 69 20 17,887 17,865 1,740,403 Dominated
PS13 5,447 405 0.22 69 20 17,888 17,866 1,757,876 26,955
PS14 5,946 428 0.23 68 20 17,889 17,867 1,820,048 Dominated
PS15 6,239 439 0.23 68 20 17,889 17,867 1,827,488 Dominated
PS16 5,897 479 0.25 67 20 17,889 17,867 1,832,472 Dominated
PS17 5,897 494 0.25 67 20 17,889 17,867 1,840,654 Dominated
PS18 6,688 525 0.26 66 19 17,890 17,869 1,861,200 Dominated
PS19 7,144 541 0.27 66 19 17,891 17,869 1,888,754 37,121
PS20 7,468 552 0.27 66 19 17,891 17,870 1,909,081 43,619
PS21 7,625 557 0.27 66 19 17,891 17,870 1,918,670 50,380
PS22 5,787 873 0.37 62 18 17,892 17,871 2,021,485 Dominated
PS23 5,787 885 0.37 62 18 17,892 17,872 2,032,352 Dominated
PS24 6,320 903 0.37 61 18 17,893 17,872 2,043,097 Dominated
PS25 6,598 911 0.38 61 18 17,893 17,872 2,060,946 Dominated
PS26 7,039 925 0.38 61 18 17,893 17,873 2,096,862 Dominated
PS27 7,039 955 0.39 61 18 17,894 17,873 2,123,266 Dominated
PS28 7,039 1,016 0.41 60 17 17,895 17,875 2,188,845 61,316
PS29 3,785 1,489 0.51 56 17 17,895 17,875 2,342,739 Dominated
PS30 4,097 1,499 0.52 56 17 17,895 17,875 2,368,540 Dominated
PS31 4,366 1,507 0.52 56 17 17,895 17,875 2,390,967 Dominated
PS32 4,366 1,654 0.55 55 16 17,897 17,877 2,539,024 Dominated
PS33 4,366 1,759 0.58 55 16 17,898 17,878 2,648,884 148,949
PS34 2,029 2,100 0.64 53 16 17,898 17,878 2,770,951 Dominated
PS35 2,029 2,182 0.66 53 16 17,898 17,878 2,854,071 Dominated
PS36 2,029 2,380 0.69 52 15 17,899 17,879 3,081,587 268,852
PS37 0 2,675 0.74 51 15 17,899 17,879 3,196,125 Dominated
PS38 0 2,805 0.76 50 15 17,900 17,880 3,359,342 Dominated
PS39 0 2,883 0.78 50 15 17,900 17,880 3,434,699 677,027

Abbreviations: CRC = colorectal cancer; FIT = faecal immunochemical test; PS = personalised screening; QALYs = quality-adjusted life years

Grey shading highlights screening scenarios on the efficient frontier prior to considering uniform screening.

a.

Results are discounted at an annual rate of 5%.

b.

Costs are presented in Australian Dollars ($AUD)

c.

The personalised screening scenarios are described in Table 4