Table 3.

Sensitivity Analyses: CRC Risk Level, Payment Source, Screening and Surveillance Time Horizon, and Prognosis of CRC in 45–49-Year-Olds

Early-initiation strategy	FIT yearly, ages 45–75 years	Colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 45–75 years	Sigmoidoscopy at 45 years; FIT yearly, ages 50–75 years	Sigmoidoscopy at 45 years; colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 50–75 years	FIT yearly, ages 45–49 years; colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 50–75 years
Comparator starting at age 50 years	vs FIT yearly, ages 50–75 years	vs colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 50–75 years	vs FIT yearly, ages 50–75 years	vs colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 50–75 years	vs colonoscopy every 10 years, ages 50–75 years
Variable in sensitivity analysis
CRC risk relative to average risk in 1990–1994
1.54 (base case)a	$7700	$33,900	$49,900	$55,900	$2500
1.35a	$10,800	$41,600	$58,600	$66,300	$4600
1.18a	$14,500	$51,000	$69,000	$78,600	$7100
1a	$19,800	$64,900	$84,100	$96,600	$10,700
0.91a	$23,100	$73,600	$93,500	$107,700	$12,900
0.75a	$31,400	$95,900	$117,100	$135,800	$18,400
0.5a	$55,200	$162,800	$185,100	$216,700	$34,200
1.54 only at ages 45–49 years and 1.0 at ages 50 years and older	$7300	$37,700	$49,100	$56,800	$2275
Payment source (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services vs commercial insurance rates at ages 45–64 years)
CMS costs for all ages	$2600	$20,000	$32,700	$42,300	$2315
Commercial payments for colonoscopy and colorectal cancer care per Fitch et al35	($2900)	$29,700	$40,000	$44,300	($9300)
Longer screening and/or surveillance time horizons
Screening to 80 years/surveillance to 80 years	$8000	$36,180	$50,990	$56,660	$2310
Screening to 80 years/surveillance to 85 years	$8030	$36,010	$51,040	$56,640	$2380
Less favorable prognosis for localized and regional colorectal cancer detected in 45–49-year-olds
Mortality doubled	$8300	$34,200	$50,300	$56,500	$2900
Mortality tripled	$8900	$34,200	$50,400	$56,600	$3200

^aThe same level of relative risk was assumed to persist over a lifetime, in the absence of screening.